Evaluation of Eemian and Holocene Climate Variability: Synthesis of marine archives with climate modelling (HolEem)

峨眉纪和全新世气候变率的评估：利用气候模型综合海洋档案（HolEem）

• 批准号: 42267456
• 负责人: Dr. Johann Jungclaus
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2006-12-31 至 2010-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/42267456?language=en
• 关键词: Evaluation; Eemian; Holocene; Climate; Variability

The major objective of the project is to investigate the spatio-temporal pattern of temperature changes during the Eemian and Holocene as derived from integrations with a comprehensive global climate model and marine surface ocean temperature records on a global scale. We will explore the worldwide distribution of existing, reedited, and newly collected marine paleotemperature data and compare it with results from transient experiments with a state-of-theart general circulation model used in the assessment of future climate change. The paleodata collection and the modelling efforts will aim to investigate the regionally very different temporal climate patterns during the middle to late Holocene (the last 6,000 years) and the Eemian (125,000 years before present). Special emphasis is placed on the last 2-3 thousand years, striving to complement a study of the last millennium. With advanced statistical analysis of spatial and temporal variability in the paleodata records and in the model results, natural climate variability modes and their amplitude will be identified in the data and compared with the climate variability tracked down in the model experiments. The extension of the Latest Holocene climate simulations into the next centuries, using scenarios for future greenhouse gas emission, can help to assess 4 future climatic change influenced by natural and anthropogenic “forcing”. The statistical analyses will extract climate phenomena from different proxy time series (Alkenones and Mg/Ca) and elaborate common variability and teleconnections for the last two interglacial periods. The aim is to unravel the influence of internal variability and natural forcing factors, like e.g. parameters of the Earth's orbit, on climate variability and regional heterogeneity in climate trends. The variations in the large-scale ocean circulation and feedback mechanisms between thermohaline circulation changes and low-frequency variations of climate will be investigated.

该项目的主要目标是调查Eemian和Holocene期间温度变化的时空模式，该模式是通过综合全球气候模式和全球范围的海洋表层海洋温度记录得出的。我们将探索现有的，重新编辑的和新收集的海洋古温度数据的全球分布，并将其与用于评估未来气候变化的最先进的大气环流模型的瞬态实验结果进行比较。古数据收集和建模工作的目的是调查全新世中晚期（过去6,000年）和Eemian（距今125,000年）期间区域性非常不同的时间气候模式。特别强调的是在过去的两三千年，努力补充上一个千年的研究。通过对古数据记录和模型结果中的空间和时间变异性进行先进的统计分析，将确定数据中的自然气候变异模式及其幅度，并与模型实验中追踪到的气候变异性进行比较。将最新全新世气候模拟扩展到未来几个世纪，使用未来温室气体排放情景，可以帮助评估自然和人为“强迫”影响的未来气候变化。统计分析将从不同的代用时间序列（烯酮和Mg/Ca）中提取气候现象，并详细说明最后两个间冰期的常见变率和遥相关。目的是揭示内部变率和自然强迫因素（如地球轨道参数）对气候变率和气候趋势的区域异质性的影响。将研究大尺度海洋环流的变化以及温盐环流变化与气候低频变化之间的反馈机制。