Attribution of Forced and internal Chinese climate variability in the Common era (Afiche)

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The project reconstructs and analyses the climate variability in China during the last millennium using climate proxy records and climate simulations, with the main goal of separating forced versus internal climatic variations in a formal detection and attribution study. We will compile the scattered and un-analysed wealth of natural and documentary proxy information and apply advanced statistical reconstructions methods, including Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling (BHM). A product will be a gridded temperature and precipitation dataset that allows for a consistent and regionally structured view of climate evolution over the past 1000 years over China.We will make use of the growing number of global palaeoclimate simulations that are available from the IPCC-CMPI5 data base and analyse the ensemble of last millennium simulations already conducted by the applicants with the models ECHO-G and ECHAM5-MPIOM. This ensemble offers a suite of simulations with different prescribed boundary conditions and thus is suitable to identify and disentangle the impact of the past individual forcings. The global simulations will be augmented by one high-resolution regional simulation with the model CLM that allow for a better representation of the interaction between the global external forcing, large-scale climate drivers (e.g. ENSO, the Asian Monsoon, and their interaction with the regional characteristics (topography, land-sea contrast, land-use). The output will allow to estimate the sensitivity of the climate in China to variations in external forcing and to test the skill of climate models in simulating past climate changes. Further, a detection and attribution analysis of regional climate variability for the past millennium will be performed. The project will help constraining the uncertainties in the regional climate projections for China (including the monsoon regions) by taking into account the external global drivers, the regional forcings and the large-scale modification of landscape due to human activities.