Integrated Forecasting System of Flood Inundation and Agricultural Damage in the Lower Mekong Basin

湄公河下游流域洪水淹没和农业损失综合预报系统

• 批准号: 21F21071
• 负责人: 佐山 敬洋
• 金额: $ 1.47万
• 依托单位: Kyoto University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2021-04-28 至 2023-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-21F21071/
• 关键词: Flood forecast; Flood inundation; Flood damage; Climate Change; Lower Mekong Basin

Flood forecasting and the related damage assessment in real-time are challenging and currently not available in the Lower Mekong region. This study focuses on the development of a real-time system of flood inundation in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). In particular, this study focuses on the developing a system to assess flood hazards and damages in the LMB simultaneously. The developed system can also be used for risk assessment of agricultural damages for future projections of extreme flood events under climate change effects.Firstly, we have collected and evaluated the observed hydrological data. Flood inundation simulation was conducted in the LMB under the effect of climate change using a large ensemble climate data (d4PDF), MRI-AGCM3.2, and CMIP6 GCM datasets. Flood hazards and its related damages were assessed. Moreover, flood forecasting was primarily evaluated using numerical weather prediction dataset from GSMaPxNEXRA through NICAM-LETKF data assimilation in the Prek Thnot River Basin, Cambodia. Finally, the evaluation and improvement of flood forecasting has been done to improve its performance and accuracy by combining with machine learning technique. Hybrid approach of hydrological model.

实时洪水预报和相关损失评估具有挑战性，目前在湄公河下游地区尚不具备。本研究的重点是在湄公河下游流域（LMB）的洪水淹没的实时系统的发展。特别是，本研究的重点是开发一个系统，以评估洪水灾害和损失的LMB同时进行。所开发的系统也可以用于农业损失的风险评估，为未来预测极端洪水事件下的气候变化的影响。首先，我们收集和评估观测到的水文数据。利用大集合气候数据（d4 PDF）、MRI-AGCM 3.2和CMIP 6 GCM数据集，对气候变化影响下的长江中下游洪水淹没进行了模拟。评估了洪水灾害及其相关损失。此外，洪水预报主要是通过在柬埔寨Prek Thnot河流域的NICAM-LETKF数据同化，使用GSMaPxNEXRA的数值天气预报数据集进行评估。最后，结合机器学习技术对洪水预报进行了评价和改进，以提高洪水预报的性能和精度。水文模型的混合方法。

项目成果

Impact of Climate Change and Dam Construction on Rice Damages in the Cambodian Floodplain of the Mekong River Basin

气候变化和大坝建设对湄公河流域柬埔寨洪泛区水稻损害的影响

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Try S.;Sayama T.;Sok T.;Ly S.;Oeurng C
• 通讯作者: Oeurng C

Integration of Hydrological and Flood Inundation Models for Assessing Flood Events in the Lower Prek Thnot River Basin under Climate Change

水文和洪水淹没模型的整合用于评估气候变化下普雷克特诺特河下游流域的洪水事件

• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
• 影响因子: 2.4
• 作者: Sophea Rom Phy;Sophal Try;Ty Sok;Ilan Ich;Ratboren Chan;and Chantha Oeurng
• 通讯作者: and Chantha Oeurng

Real-time Flood Forecasting Using Numerical Weather Prediction System Through NICAM-LETKF Data Assimilation in the Prek Thnot River

利用数值天气预报系统通过 NICAM-LETKF 数据同化对 Prek Thnot 河进行实时洪水预报

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Sophal Try;Takahiro Sayama;Ty Sok;Sophea Rum Phy;and Chantha Oeurng
• 通讯作者: and Chantha Oeurng

Assessment of Agricultural Damages of Future Extreme Flooding in Cambodia

柬埔寨未来极端洪水的农业损失评估

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Try S.;Sayama T.;Sok T.;Ly S.;Oeurng C
• 通讯作者: Oeurng C

Assessing the Potential Rice Damages of Extreme Floods in the Cambodian Floodplain of the Mekong River Under Future Climate and Dam Development

评估未来气候和大坝开发下柬埔寨湄公河漫滩极端洪水对水稻的潜在损害

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Sophal Try;Takahiro Sayama;Sophea Rom Phy;Ty Sok;Steven Ly;and Chantha Oeurng
• 通讯作者: and Chantha Oeurng