北大西洋及び北極海での温帯低気圧による沿岸災害の将来予測

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In this fiscal year the research activities largely focused on testing the atmospheric and hydrodynamic modelling setup within the Arctic study area. Various extent of modelling domains have been used (downscaling from larger and rougher simulation domains to smaller and finer resolution domains). The results so far for the 1999 September extreme storm showed varied response under the considered climate change conditions for 2050. Showing the need to further improve numerical method used in the Arctic region. As initially expected, the lack of observed data availability (such as wind field, waves and storm induced sea level variations) within the Arctic complicated the model accuracy verification and calibration. While other modelling hindcast data could be used as a reference point, it is still not ideal to reflect and capture the real-world situation. However, using satellite data products can act in some cases as a potential workaround. In addition, it has been identified that the previously used method needs adjustment for the Arctic region mainly from the future surface and atmospheric thermal perspective. The future thermal changes in the Arctic region need to be better represented in the model setup (e.g. the ocean temperature under lack of sea ice needs to be adjusted to reflect the potential reality). The research has so far been using CMIP5 models (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios), however it is under consideration to migrate over to the latest CMIP6 models.