北大西洋及び北極海での温帯低気圧による沿岸災害の将来予測

在本财政年度，研究活动主要侧重于测试北极研究区域内的大气和流体动力学模型设置。已经使用了各种程度的建模域（从较大和较粗糙的模拟域降尺度到较小和较精细的分辨率域）。到目前为止，1999年9月极端风暴的结果表明，在所考虑的2050年气候变化条件下，反应各不相同。表明需要进一步改进数值方法在北极地区的应用。正如最初预期的那样，北极地区缺乏观测数据（如风场、波浪和风暴引起的海平面变化），使模型准确性的验证和校准复杂化。虽然其他建模后报数据可用作参考点，但反映和捕捉现实世界的情况仍然不理想。然而，在某些情况下，使用卫星数据产品可以作为一种潜在的变通办法。此外，已经确定，以前使用的方法需要调整，主要是从未来的地表和大气热的角度来看，北极地区。北极地区未来的热变化需要在模型设置中得到更好的体现（例如，需要调整缺乏海冰情况下的海洋温度，以反映潜在的现实）。 到目前为止，该研究一直使用CMIP5模型（RCP4.5和RCP8.5场景），但正在考虑迁移到最新的CMIP6模型。

In this fiscal year the research activities largely focused on testing the atmospheric and hydrodynamic modelling setup within the Arctic study area. Various extent of modelling domains have been used (downscaling from larger and rougher simulation domains to smaller and finer resolution domains). The results so far for the 1999 September extreme storm showed varied response under the considered climate change conditions for 2050. Showing the need to further improve numerical method used in the Arctic region. As initially expected, the lack of observed data availability (such as wind field, waves and storm induced sea level variations) within the Arctic complicated the model accuracy verification and calibration. While other modelling hindcast data could be used as a reference point, it is still not ideal to reflect and capture the real-world situation. However, using satellite data products can act in some cases as a potential workaround. In addition, it has been identified that the previously used method needs adjustment for the Arctic region mainly from the future surface and atmospheric thermal perspective. The future thermal changes in the Arctic region need to be better represented in the model setup (e.g. the ocean temperature under lack of sea ice needs to be adjusted to reflect the potential reality). The research has so far been using CMIP5 models (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios), however it is under consideration to migrate over to the latest CMIP6 models.