Demographic fluctuations in dynamic landscapes: the integration of molecular and paleoecological evidence in a primate model opens a window into the past

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Marked climatic oscillations between glacial and interglacial periods had worldwide consequences for vegetation as well as animal population dynamics. The importance of these shallow-time (on geological and evolutionary timescales) dynamics for shaping current biodiversity and biogeography patterns is increasingly stressed, although rarely analyzed in an integrated manner. One of the necessary steps in order to understand the drivers of biodiversity is to synergize the efforts from various research fields by, for example, reconstructing the interplay between the degree and frequency of historic forest cover changes and demographic changes of forest-dependent organisms. This study will continue to integrate new records of vegetation and climate dynamics with inferred population dynamics to reconstruct the demographic dynamics of forest dwelling species over space and time in a primate genus endemic to Madagascar. Based on our successful work from the first funding period, this project will integrate demographic inferences based on molecular datasets of three mouse lemur species with high-resolution vegetation and climate dynamics that became now available from northern Madagascar and reach back to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The integration of both datasets will allow to compare the sensitivity and performance of available demographic modelling tools when inferring demographic fluctuations. To reach these goals, available molecular datasets generated for mouse lemurs from northwestern and northern Madagascar will be analyzed and compared with available paleoecological datasets. Demographic reconstructions will be based on available RADSeq datasets and several full genomes generated for three mouse lemur species. Demographic modelling tools include Stairway Plots, PSMC analyses, and model-based coalescent approaches. This study will contribute substantially to a deeper understanding of the evolutionary history and future prospects of lemur populations in view of ongoing habitat fragmentation and future climate change.