Modeling risk perception and risk taking in dynamic situations

本项目的目标是研究风险感知和冒险行为的基本机制和过程。虽然这方面的研究已经很多，但主要是静态任务的应用。然而，这些任务并不反映这样一个事实，即高风险的现实生活决策通常会导致条件改变进一步决策的风险。因此，一个有趣的问题是，决策者在多大程度上能够发现这些变化并将其考虑在内。为了回答这个和相关的问题，本项目集中在危险行为的基本动态方面。最近，已经开发了几个非常适合实现这一目标的动态任务。一个是哥伦比亚卡任务(CCT)，其中必须做出几个连续的风险决策，每个决策都修改了后续决策的风险。有条件现金转移机制允许对准备-暴露-应对(PEC)循环进行详细调查，这是研究单位的主要议题。这个项目的重点是顺序决策的动态。相应的性能不仅将通过实验进行研究，还将使用静态和动态模型进行建模。更令人感兴趣的是决策中的动态。也就是说，将审查在决策过程中如何以及何时考虑到不同类型的信息，并将其用于评价不同的备选方案。这些问题也将通过使用扩散模型对决策绩效进行建模来分析。总共计划了8个实验，其中一些是关于动态任务的基本性质和相应的风险决策的调查。在其他实验中，将测试动态任务和静态任务中的表现有何不同。将与其他分项目合作，测试所开发的概念和模型在临床环境中的适用性。

The goal of this project is to investigate basic mechanisms and processes of risk perception and risk-taking behavior. Although there is already much research in this area, mainly static tasks have been applied. These tasks, however, do not reflect the fact that risky real-life decisions usually lead to conditions that change the risk for further decisions. An interesting question therefore is, to what extent decision makers are able to detect these changes and to take them into account. To answer this and related questions, the present project focusses on basic dynamic aspects of risky behavior. Recently, several dynamic tasks have been developed that are well suited for achieving this goal. One is the Columbia Card Task (CCT), where several sequential risky decisions have to be made, each of which modifies the risk for the subsequent decision. The CCT allows a detailed investigation of the Preparedness-Exposure-Coping (PEC) cycle, which is the main topic of the research unit. The focus of this project is the dynamics of sequential decisions. The corresponding performance will not only be investigated experimentally, but also modeled with static as well as dynamic models. Of further interest is the dynamics within decisions. That is, it will be examined how and when different types of information are taken into account during the decision process and are used for the evaluation of the different options. These issues will also be analyzed by modeling decision performance with diffusion models. Overall, 8 experiments are planned, of which some are concerned with the investigation of basic properties of dynamic tasks and corresponding risky decisions. In other experiments it will be tested how performance in dynamic tasks differ to that in static tasks. The applicability of the developed concepts and models, e.g. in clinical contexts, will be tested in cooperation with other sub-projects.