Modeling risk perception and risk taking in dynamic situations

这个项目的目的是研究风险感知和冒险行为的基本机制和过程。虽然在这方面已经有很多研究，但主要应用的是静态任务。然而，这些任务并没有反映这样一个事实，即现实生活中的风险决策通常会导致改变进一步决策风险的条件。因此，一个有趣的问题是，决策者能够在多大程度上发现这些变化并加以考虑。为了回答这个问题和相关问题，本项目侧重于危险行为的基本动态方面。最近，开发了几个动态任务，非常适合实现这一目标。一种是哥伦比亚卡片任务（Columbia Card Task， CCT），其中必须做出几个连续的风险决策，每个决策都会修改后续决策的风险。CCT允许对准备-暴露-应对（PEC）周期进行详细调查，这是研究单位的主要主题。这个项目的重点是顺序决策的动态。相应的性能不仅将进行实验研究，还将采用静态和动态模型进行建模。更令人感兴趣的是决策内部的动态。也就是说，它将审查在决策过程中如何以及何时考虑到不同类型的信息，并将其用于评价不同的选择。这些问题也将通过用扩散模型建模决策性能来分析。总共计划了8个实验，其中一些是关于动态任务的基本性质和相应的风险决策的研究。在其他实验中，将测试动态任务的性能与静态任务的性能有何不同。开发的概念和模型的适用性，例如在临床环境中的适用性，将与其他子项目合作进行测试。

The goal of this project is to investigate basic mechanisms and processes of risk perception and risk-taking behavior. Although there is already much research in this area, mainly static tasks have been applied. These tasks, however, do not reflect the fact that risky real-life decisions usually lead to conditions that change the risk for further decisions. An interesting question therefore is, to what extent decision makers are able to detect these changes and to take them into account. To answer this and related questions, the present project focusses on basic dynamic aspects of risky behavior. Recently, several dynamic tasks have been developed that are well suited for achieving this goal. One is the Columbia Card Task (CCT), where several sequential risky decisions have to be made, each of which modifies the risk for the subsequent decision. The CCT allows a detailed investigation of the Preparedness-Exposure-Coping (PEC) cycle, which is the main topic of the research unit. The focus of this project is the dynamics of sequential decisions. The corresponding performance will not only be investigated experimentally, but also modeled with static as well as dynamic models. Of further interest is the dynamics within decisions. That is, it will be examined how and when different types of information are taken into account during the decision process and are used for the evaluation of the different options. These issues will also be analyzed by modeling decision performance with diffusion models. Overall, 8 experiments are planned, of which some are concerned with the investigation of basic properties of dynamic tasks and corresponding risky decisions. In other experiments it will be tested how performance in dynamic tasks differ to that in static tasks. The applicability of the developed concepts and models, e.g. in clinical contexts, will be tested in cooperation with other sub-projects.