Application of Probabilistic Forecasting to Load Management (T04#)

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The increasing amount of renewable energy production in the German electricity marketposes new challenges to market participants. In this transfer project we aim at generatingprobabilistic forecasts of electricity load of industrial consumers and assess their benefit fordemand-side-management. This can help companies to cope with the new marketenvironment and to improve system stability. Together with ÖKOTEC EnergiemanagementGmbH we want to adopt the methods developed within the CRC 649 “Economic Risk” to realconsumer data. This requires flexible modeling techniques. Potential time-varying behaviorwill be address using localizing methods. Results will be evaluated and visualized and theirapplicability to practice will be tested.