Application of Probabilistic Forecasting to Load Management (T04#)

概率预测在负荷管理中的应用（T04

• 批准号: 346035905
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Lehrstuhl für Statistik
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Collaborative Research Centres (Transfer Project)
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2016-12-31 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/346035905?language=en
• 关键词: Application; Probabilistic; Forecasting; Load; Management

The increasing amount of renewable energy production in the German electricity marketposes new challenges to market participants. In this transfer project we aim at generatingprobabilistic forecasts of electricity load of industrial consumers and assess their benefit fordemand-side-management. This can help companies to cope with the new marketenvironment and to improve system stability. Together with ÖKOTEC EnergiemanagementGmbH we want to adopt the methods developed within the CRC 649 “Economic Risk” to realconsumer data. This requires flexible modeling techniques. Potential time-varying behaviorwill be address using localizing methods. Results will be evaluated and visualized and theirapplicability to practice will be tested.

德国电力市场不断增加的可再生能源产量给市场参与者带来了新的挑战。在这个转移项目中，我们的目标是产生工业用户用电负荷的概率预测，并评估其效益，以供需求侧管理使用。这有助于企业应对新的市场环境，提高系统的稳定性。与ÖKOTEC EnergiemanagementGmbH一起，我们希望采用CRC 649“经济风险”中开发的方法来实现消费者数据的真实。这需要灵活的建模技术。潜在的时变行为将使用本地化方法来解决。将对结果进行评估和可视化，并测试其实践应用能力。