Towards the next generation probabilistic flood forecasting system for the UK

英国下一代概率洪水预报系统

• 批准号: 2907694
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Birmingham
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2907694
• 关键词: Towards; next; generation; probabilistic; flood

Probabilistic flood forecasting can enhance decision-making, such as flood early warning, by offering a better understanding of uncertainty and risk. This project aims to develop a spatially variable probabilistic flood forecasting model at high-resolution. To achieve this aim, the project will link different types of models (i.e., weather forecast, rainfall-runoff, and flood inundation models), and utilise a Bayesian uncertainty quantification framework. The flood forecasting model will be validated by data from past flood events. The project will help to deliver the much-needed fundamental research to support governments and businesses across the UK to become more flood resilient.

概率洪水预报可以通过提供对不确定性和风险的更好理解来加强决策，例如洪水早期预警。本项目旨在建立高分辨率的空间变概率洪水预报模型。为了实现这一目标，该项目将把不同类型的模型（即天气预报、降雨径流和洪水淹没模型）联系起来，并利用贝叶斯不确定性量化框架。洪水预报模型将通过以往洪水事件的数据进行验证。该项目将有助于提供急需的基础研究，以支持英国各地的政府和企业变得更具抗洪能力。