Towards the next generation probabilistic flood forecasting system for the UK

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Probabilistic flood forecasting can enhance decision-making, such as flood early warning, by offering a better understanding of uncertainty and risk. This project aims to develop a spatially variable probabilistic flood forecasting model at high-resolution. To achieve this aim, the project will link different types of models (i.e., weather forecast, rainfall-runoff, and flood inundation models), and utilise a Bayesian uncertainty quantification framework. The flood forecasting model will be validated by data from past flood events. The project will help to deliver the much-needed fundamental research to support governments and businesses across the UK to become more flood resilient.