Constraining future Antarctic ice loss with the coupled ice-ocean model PISM-FESOM

利用冰海耦合模型 PISM-FESOM 限制未来南极冰损失

• 批准号: 365777940
• 负责人: Professorin Dr. Ricarda Winkelmann
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Alfred-Wegener-Institut (AWI) Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Infrastructure Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2016-12-31 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/365777940?language=en
• 关键词: Constraining; future; Antarctic; ice; loss

The target of the envisaged project is an interactively coupled ice-ocean model system capable of resolving dynamic processes in and around Antarctica on a horizontal scale of up to 1km. The Antarctic ice sheet responds on timescales that are longer than those of climate variability. As it is never in equilibrium, the ice-sheet component requires a high-resolution spin-up procedure that provides a realistic configuration of the present-day Antarctic Ice Sheet and at the same time accounts for the long-term drift as delayed response to the climate conditions during the last glacial cycles. We will perform coupled simulations with future climate forcing, which will provide estimates of the future sea level contribution from the Antarctic Ice Sheet on centennial time scales that are constrained by the conservation of energy and include the drift from the last glacial cycles. The coupled PISM-FESOM model will allow us to assess whether large-scale warm water inflow as projected in uni-directional simulations is realistic under the dynamic response of the ice sheet. Particular focus will be given to the vulnerability of the floating ice shelves, which act as the main contact interface between ice and ocean.

该项目的目标是建立一个交互式耦合的冰海模型系统，能够在水平尺度达 1 公里的范围内解析南极洲及其周围的动态过程。南极冰盖的响应时间尺度比气候变化的时间尺度更长。由于冰盖组件永远不会处于平衡状态，因此需要高分辨率旋转程序，以提供当今南极冰盖的真实配置，同时将长期漂移解释为对最后一个冰川周期期间气候条件的延迟响应。我们将与未来的气候强迫进行耦合模拟，这将提供对南极冰盖在百年时间尺度上对未来海平面贡献的估计，该时间尺度受到能量守恒的限制，并包括最后一次冰川周期的漂移。耦合的 PISM-FESOM 模型将使我们能够评估单向模拟中预测的大规模温水流入在冰盖的动态响应下是否真实。将特别关注浮动冰架的脆弱性，它是冰与海洋之间的主要接触界面。