How Does Reducing the Intensity of Tracking Affect Student Achievement and Equity? Evidence from German State Reforms

跟踪，即根据学生的学习能力进行分组，有很多潜在的优势。教学、课程、班级规模和其他学校投入可以针对更同质的群体进行调整，从而优化学习。然而，在欧洲，学生被跟踪到不同类型的学校，关于跟踪的积极影响的经验证据是难以捉摸的。对斯堪的纳维亚国家取消跟踪改革的跨国证据和评估表明，跟踪几乎不会影响学生的平均成绩水平，反而会加剧不平等。根据PISA分数，德国是一个早期（10岁）和密集（3个以上学校类型）跟踪相对较高的国家。尽管事实证明，推迟首次追踪的时间在政治上是困难的，但巴登-符腾堡州、巴伐利亚州、柏林、不来梅、汉堡、莱茵兰-普法尔茨州和石勒苏威格-荷尔斯泰因州等七个州在2006/07至2011/12年间实施了改革，降低了追踪的强度。这些改革要么减少了可用的学校课程的数量，要么升级了最低的课程，以便提供中等课程的学校学位。该项目旨在确定在德国学校系统中减少跟踪力度对学生成绩水平和公平性的影响。我们利用德国七个州的“差异中的差异”方法进行脱轨改革。在我们的主要分析中，我们使用了国家教育小组研究（NEPS）的两个队列：起始队列（SC） 3（五年级）和SC 4（九年级）。通过比较两组学生在9年级和10年级的成绩，NEPS数据为研究改革前后学生的能力提供了一个独特的机会。通过比较改革前和改革后学生在7个改革州的第4级（改革前）和第3级（改革后）的成绩差异，以及9个非改革州学生的成绩差异，来确定改革效果。我们将分析对学生成绩分数、十年级成绩、中学学位和年级重复的影响，以及学生社会经济背景的异质性影响。在深化分析中，将使用德国统计局的行政数据和其他成绩测试的数据来检验改革实施前的共同趋势。丰富的NEPS数据可以研究学校投入、同伴群体、教学人员、赛道选择和私人辅导等方面的变化，作为改革效果的可能渠道。最后，该项目将调查从学校到工作的转变作为脱轨改革的长期影响。

Tracking, i.e. the sorting of students by ability into groups of learning, potentially has many advantages. Teaching, curriculum, class size, and other school inputs can be tailored to the more homogenous groups such that learning is optimized. For Europe, however, where students are tracked into different types of school, empirical evidence on positive effects of tracking is elusive. Cross-country evidence and evaluations of de-tracking reforms in Scandinavia suggest that tracking hardly affects the average level of student achievement but increases inequality. Germany is a country with early (at age 10) and intensive (3+ school types) tracking with relatively high inequality according to PISA scores. While it has proven to be politically hard to postpone the age of first tracking, seven states: Baden-Wurttemberg, Bavaria, Berlin, Bremen, Hamburg, Rhineland-Palatinate, and Schleswig-Holstein, have implemented reforms between 2006/07 and 2011/12 that reduced the intensity of tracking. These reforms either reduced the number of school tracks available or upgraded the lowest track such that it offers a middle-track school degree. This project aims at identifying the effect of a reduction in the intensity of tracking on the level and equity of student outcomes in German school systems. We exploit the de-tracking reforms of the seven German states in a difference-in-differences approach. For our main analysis, we use two cohorts of the National Education Panel Study (NEPS): starting cohort (SC) 3 (5th grade) and SC 4 (9th grade). By comparing student outcomes when both cohorts are in 9th and 10th grade, the NEPS data provide a unique opportunity to study the competencies of students before and after the reforms. The reform effect is identified by comparing the difference in outcomes of students between SC 4 (pre-reform) and SC 3 (post-reform) in the seven reform states with the respective difference in the nine non-reform states. We will analyze effects on student-achievement scores, attainment of 10th grade, secondary-school degree, and grade repetition, as well as heterogeneous effects by socio-economic background of the student. In deepened analyses, administrative data from the German statistical office and from other achievement tests will be used to test for common trends before the reform implementation. The rich NEPS data allow studying changes in school inputs, peer groups, teaching staff, track choices, and private tutoring as possible channels of reform effects. Finally, the project will investigate school-to-work transitions as longer-run effects of the de-tracking reforms.