Challenges for the Stability of the Chinese Economic Model

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In recent years, academic and public debates on China are increasingly guided by concerns that a declining economic dynamic could culminate in a major crisis. The present project takes up this debate in the form of a country analysis that is based on regional case studies. It examines if and to what extent current socio-economic and political challenges are destabilizing China's state-permeated economic model. In particular, it asks whether recent reforms initiated under the Xi Jinping government tend to undermine or sustain the model. Previous research has identified the productive interplay of key institutional spheres as the basis of China´s state-permeated market economy. Consequently, the research firstly investigates if these institutional pillars as well as their interaction experience radical shifts or undergo adapted stabilization. Secondly, causes for institutional change or stability are identified. In order to test the assumption of the persistence of China´s state-permeated model and its related economic performance, we employ statistical data, expert interviews and further Chinese sources. In order to take account of interregional heterogeneity in the industrialized sectors of the Chinese economy, the research scope is not limited to aggregated national data. Three comparative case studies are conducted, which focus on industrial metropolises in the highly developed coastal province of Guangdong (here: Shenzhen), in the late-developing inland province of Hubei (here: Wuhan) and the structurally weak rustbelt province of Liaoning (here: Shenyang). The period of investigation covers the years from 2010 to 2018. The study expects new insights on the political and economic development of China as well as a more accurate understanding of the processes enabling institutional stabilization and of an incremental, path-dependent adaptation of models of capitalism.