Challenges for the Stability of the Chinese Economic Model

近年来，学术界和公众对中国的讨论越来越多地受到经济活力下降可能导致重大危机的担忧的指导。本项目以基于区域案例研究的国别分析的形式展开这一辩论。它考察了当前的社会经济和政治挑战是否以及在多大程度上破坏了中国政府主导的经济模式。特别是，它质疑Xi近平政府最近发起的改革是否倾向于破坏或维持这种模式。以前的研究已经确定，关键制度领域的生产性相互作用是中国国家渗透市场经济的基础。因此，本研究首先探讨这些制度支柱及其相互作用是否经历了根本性的转变或适应性的稳定。第二，确定体制变革或稳定的原因。为了检验中国国家渗透模型的持续性及其相关经济表现的假设，我们使用了统计数据、专家访谈和进一步的中国来源。为了考虑中国经济工业化部门的区域间异质性，研究范围不限于汇总的国家数据。三个比较案例研究，重点是工业大都市在高度发达的沿海省份广东（这里：深圳），在后发展的内陆省份湖北（这里：武汉）和结构薄弱的锈带省份辽宁（这里：沈阳）。调查期间为二零一零年至二零一八年。该研究期望对中国的政治和经济发展有新的见解，并更准确地理解实现制度稳定的过程，以及资本主义模式的渐进式、路径依赖性适应。

In recent years, academic and public debates on China are increasingly guided by concerns that a declining economic dynamic could culminate in a major crisis. The present project takes up this debate in the form of a country analysis that is based on regional case studies. It examines if and to what extent current socio-economic and political challenges are destabilizing China's state-permeated economic model. In particular, it asks whether recent reforms initiated under the Xi Jinping government tend to undermine or sustain the model. Previous research has identified the productive interplay of key institutional spheres as the basis of China´s state-permeated market economy. Consequently, the research firstly investigates if these institutional pillars as well as their interaction experience radical shifts or undergo adapted stabilization. Secondly, causes for institutional change or stability are identified. In order to test the assumption of the persistence of China´s state-permeated model and its related economic performance, we employ statistical data, expert interviews and further Chinese sources. In order to take account of interregional heterogeneity in the industrialized sectors of the Chinese economy, the research scope is not limited to aggregated national data. Three comparative case studies are conducted, which focus on industrial metropolises in the highly developed coastal province of Guangdong (here: Shenzhen), in the late-developing inland province of Hubei (here: Wuhan) and the structurally weak rustbelt province of Liaoning (here: Shenyang). The period of investigation covers the years from 2010 to 2018. The study expects new insights on the political and economic development of China as well as a more accurate understanding of the processes enabling institutional stabilization and of an incremental, path-dependent adaptation of models of capitalism.