Local social capital and the rise of right-wing populism

过去几年，西方社会右翼民粹主义迅速崛起。研究表明，那些曾经繁荣但现在衰落的工业“锈带”的选民尤其支持民粹主义运动。在快速变化的时代，强大而可靠的地方网络和身份（社会资本）可以提供团结，消除民粹主义的滋生土壤。然而，如果像体育俱乐部这样的社团是紧密联系和排他性的，它们也可能会更快地滋生和传播民粹主义。证据完全缺乏，尤其是在因果关系方面。本项目旨在探讨社会资本与右翼民粹主义的关系。我建议在几个欧洲国家利用现代计量经济学识别策略（差中差估计、模糊和尖锐回归不连续设计以及工具变量方法）进行准自然实验。最后，五篇紧密相连的论文将为社会资本是否能够引导西方社会的民主和反民主倾向这一尚未被充分探讨的问题提供一个全面的、因果的、基于证据的答案。

Western societies have seen a rapid surge in right-wing populism in past years. Studies show that particularly voters in once booming but now declining industrial "rust belts" support populist movements. In times of rapid change, strong and reliable local networks and identities (social capital), may provide solidarity and eliminate the breeding ground for populism. However, if associations such as sports clubs are closely knit and exclusive, they may also breed and spread populism even more rapidly. Evidence is utterly scarce, especially when it comes to causal effects. This project aims at investigating the relationship of social capital and right-wing populism. I propose to exploit quasi-natural experiments in several European countries using modern econometric identification strategies (difference-in-differences estimations, fuzzy and sharp regression discontinuity design, and instrumental variable approach).In the end, five closely connected papers would provide a comprehensive and causal evidence-based answer to the yet underexplored question whether social capital is able to channel both democratic but also anti-democratic tendencies in Western societies.