Towards a Micro-Founded Theory of Monetary Policy

走向微观货币政策理论

• 批准号: 402884221
• 负责人: Professor Lutz Weinke, Ph.D.
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Department of Economics & Finance (Eco&Fin)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2017-12-31 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/402884221?language=en
• 关键词: Towards; Micro; Founded; Theory; Monetary

The lumpy nature of plant-level investment is generally not taken into account in the context of New Keynesian monetary theory (see, e.g., Christiano et al. 2005 and Woodford 2005). Our main result in Reiter et al. (2013) shows that if this theory is augmented by a standard model of lumpy investment, monetary policy shocks lead to large but very short-lived impacts on output and inflation, in a way that goes against empirical evidence and the consensus view in the literature. The microfoundations of standard monetary theory are therefore questionable. In fact, the perceived usefulness of that theory rests entirely on one of two assumptions. Capital accumulation is either abstracted from (see, e.g., Galí 2015, among many others) or taken into account in a way that is inconsistent with the microevidence on plant-level investment (see, e.g., Woodford 2003, 2005 or Christiano et al. 2005, among many others). The proposed project therefore aims at developing a theory of the monetary transmission mechanism that is consistent with the micro-level investment data. This is a ground-breaking step towards a micro-founded theory of monetary policy. Given the large extent to which current monetary theory is used at central banks and other policy institutions the proposed research clearly addresses important challenges. Specifically, the research projects will analyze the role of idiosyncratic productivity shocks in that context. We will also consider additional frictions originating in labor markets as well as in financial markets. Those frictions have the potential to imply a realistic monetary transmission mechanism in the presence of lumpy investment. The ultimate goal will be to use the resulting framework for an analysis of the desirability of alternative arrangements for the conduct of monetary policy. The key methodological challenge is the computation of large general equilibrium models with heterogeneous firms, which we solve by the methods developed in Reiter (2009, 2010a,b and 2017).

在新凯恩斯主义货币理论的背景下，工厂级投资的不稳定性质通常不被考虑(见，例如，Christian等人。2005年和伍德福德2005年)。我们在Reiter等人中的主要结果。(2013)表明，如果这一理论被不稳定投资的标准模型补充，货币政策冲击会对产出和通胀产生巨大但非常短暂的影响，这与经验证据和文献中的共识观点背道而驰。因此，标准货币理论的微观基础值得怀疑。事实上，人们认为该理论的有用性完全取决于以下两个假设之一。资本积累要么是从(除其他许多外，见Galí2015)中抽象出来的，要么是以与工厂一级投资的微观证据不一致的方式考虑的(例如，见Woodford 2003,2005或Christian ano等人)。2005年，以及其他许多事件)。因此，拟议的项目旨在发展一种与微观投资数据相一致的货币传导机制理论。这是迈向微观货币政策理论的开创性一步。鉴于当前货币理论在很大程度上被央行和其他政策机构使用，拟议中的研究显然解决了重要的挑战。具体地说，研究项目将分析特殊生产率冲击在这一背景下的作用。我们还将考虑源于劳动力市场和金融市场的额外摩擦。这些摩擦有可能暗示，在投资不稳定的情况下，存在一种现实的货币传导机制。最终目标将是利用由此产生的框架来分析货币政策实施的替代安排的可取性。关键的方法论挑战是计算具有异质公司的大型一般均衡模型，我们用Reiter(2009、2010a、b和2017)中开发的方法解决了这个问题。