Blueberries in winter, quinoa for lunch, and Fairtrade coffee – Global food trends and implications for smallholder farmers

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The evidence shows that the globalization of agricultural value chains offers opportunities to link poor farmers to higher-value export markets, thereby improving living standards among the world’s poorest population segments. However, globalizing food markets are also characterized by rapidly changing demand patterns and food trends, the proliferation of new technologies, and stricter standards. For poor farmers, it can be difficult to adapt sufficiently quickly to changing market conditions. This research project takes two food trends as examples – sustainability certification (e.g. Fairtrade) and the quinoa/superfood boom – to provide evidence that can help ensure that smallholders are not excluded from globalizing food markets. Different methodological approaches and data sources are used for three interlinked work packages (WP). WP 1 is aimed at drawing generalizable conclusions on whether smallholders benefit from sustainability certification. An increasing number of individual studies have analyzed economic implications of certification, with conflicting results. A meta-analysis will be conducted to consolidate existing results. Meta-regressions will help explain differences in results, and thus identify conditions under which farmers can (or cannot) benefit from certification. WP 2 is also aimed at contributing to a better understanding of whether – and under what conditions – farmers benefit from certification, but focuses on the role of cooperatives. Available studies have used data from a large number of farmers – but a small number of cooperatives, substantially limiting the generalizability of results beyond the cooperative under consideration. We will compile and use a unique data set from a large number of both farmers and cooperatives. These data and econometric technique will allow us to disentangle the effect of certification and cooperative effects; to assess the importance of cooperative performance for certification outcomes; and to expand the understanding of why farmers participate, especially if they do not benefit from certification. WP 3 will analyze effects of the mainstreaming and commercialization of initial niche products, taking the quinoa boom as an example. Previous studies have shown that raising international demand for quinoa and increasing quinoa prices benefited both quinoa producers and consumers. However, indirect effects of the quinoa boom (e.g. reallocation of household resources), which may have increased or decreased households’ vulnerability in the longer run, are poorly understood. Likewise, quinoa prices have been falling for a while, with unclear implications for quinoa producers. Based on nationally representative household data from Peru (i.e. the ENAHO data set) we will explore direct and indirect effects during and after the quinoa boom. As many products undergo similar cycles of price developments and product differentiation, results will be relevant beyond the case of quinoa.