RAPID: Forecasting & Communicating the US Fall/Winter Respiratory Disease Outlook

快速:预测

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    2348262
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 15万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2023-12-01 至 2024-11-30
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

This project will develop new models and forecasts of COVID, influenza, and RSV incidence and severity for the 2023/2024 season. The project will test a new approach to public health forecasting by combining computational models with human judgment. For the first time on a national scale, it will bring together computational modeling and human forecasting, seeking to improve forecasting accuracy and responsiveness. Additionally, it will boost public trust and transparency by introducing innovative communication methods to clearly convey risk and uncertainty. The project will bolster the preparedness of the Center for the 2023/2024 respiratory disease season through the delivery of weekly forecasts, analysis, and communication support. Public communication will be delivered via data dashboards prepared by the CDC and populated with project forecasts, as well as weekly written updates that together will provide a comprehensive, regularly updated, probabilistic outlook on the expected timing, severity, and peaks of COVID, influenza, and RSV. In close collaboration with the CDC, the project will craft tailored visual and verbal communication strategies, emphasizing forecast confidence.This proposal investigates the potential of frequent, probabilistic forecasting and related public communication to improve nationwide public health preparedness during the peak respiratory disease season, building on successful state-level epidemiological response and planning efforts from 2020-2023. The project will operate a public forecasting tournament to provide numerical forecasts for use in communicating and quantifying the expected fall and winter respiratory disease burden of RSV, influenza, and COVID. It will work closely with the CDC to create forecasting questions for the tournament. Questions focused on the timing and magnitude of the peak onset of respiratory illnesses will help chart the expected trajectory, while other questions may track vaccine uptake, week-by-week disease burden, the potential for emerging variants, and the risk of high hospital utilization. In collaboration with the CDC, it also will explore the potential for forecasting questions that could be used to enhance existing CDC modeling through human judgment and parameterization.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
该项目将为2023/2024季节的COVID、流感和RSV发病率和严重程度开发新模型和预测。该项目将通过将计算模型与人类判断相结合来测试一种新的公共卫生预测方法。它将首次在全国范围内将计算建模和人工预测结合起来,寻求提高预测准确性和响应能力。此外,它还将通过引入创新的沟通方法来明确传达风险和不确定性,从而提高公众的信任度和透明度。该项目将通过提供每周预测,分析和沟通支持,加强中心对2023/2024呼吸道疾病季节的准备。公众沟通将通过CDC准备的数据仪表板进行,并填充项目预测,以及每周书面更新,这些将共同提供关于COVID,流感和RSV的预期时间,严重程度和峰值的全面,定期更新的概率前景。该项目将与CDC密切合作,制定量身定制的视觉和口头沟通策略,强调预测信心。该提案将研究频繁的概率预测和相关的公共沟通的潜力,以提高全国范围内在呼吸道疾病高峰季节的公共卫生准备,建立在成功的州一级流行病学应对和规划工作的基础上,从2020年至2023年。该项目将举办一场公共预测锦标赛,提供数值预测,用于沟通和量化RSV、流感和COVID的预期秋冬呼吸道疾病负担。它将与疾病预防控制中心密切合作,为锦标赛创建预测问题。关注呼吸道疾病发病高峰的时间和程度的问题将有助于绘制预期的轨迹,而其他问题可能会跟踪疫苗接种,每周的疾病负担,新出现的变异的可能性以及高医院利用率的风险。通过与CDC的合作,它还将探索预测问题的潜力,这些问题可用于通过人类判断和参数化来增强现有的CDC建模。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命,并被认为值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)

数据更新时间:{{ journalArticles.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
  • DOI:
    {{ item.doi }}
  • 发表时间:
    {{ item.publish_year }}
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    {{ item.factor }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.authors }}
  • 通讯作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ journalArticles.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ monograph.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ sciAawards.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ conferencePapers.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ patent.updateTime }}

Gaia Dempsey其他文献

The Joint Tactical Air Controller: cognitive modeling and augmented reality HMD design.
联合战术空中控制器:认知建模和增强现实 HMD 设计。
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2019
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    C. Wickens;Gaia Dempsey;Andrew Pringle;Lucas Kazansky;Stefanie Hutka
  • 通讯作者:
    Stefanie Hutka
Developing and Evaluating an Augmented Reality Interface to Assist the Joint Tactical Air Controller by Applying Human Performance Models
开发和评估增强现实界面,通过应用人体表现模型来协助联合战术空中管制员

Gaia Dempsey的其他文献

{{ item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
  • DOI:
    {{ item.doi }}
  • 发表时间:
    {{ item.publish_year }}
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    {{ item.factor }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.authors }}
  • 通讯作者:
    {{ item.author }}

相似海外基金

MULTI-STRESS: Quantifying the impacts of multiple stressors in multiple dimensions to improve ecological forecasting
多重压力:在多个维度量化多种压力源的影响,以改进生态预测
  • 批准号:
    NE/Z000130/1
  • 财政年份:
    2024
  • 资助金额:
    $ 15万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
LTREB: Integrating real-time open data pipelines and forecasting to quantify ecosystem predictability at day to decadal scales
LTREB:集成实时开放数据管道和预测,以量化每日到十年尺度的生态系统可预测性
  • 批准号:
    2327030
  • 财政年份:
    2024
  • 资助金额:
    $ 15万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Solar Forecasting And Future Sustainable Power Systems
太阳能预测和未来可持续电力系统
  • 批准号:
    2908163
  • 财政年份:
    2024
  • 资助金额:
    $ 15万
  • 项目类别:
    Studentship
Cross-scale forecasting of Everglades wading bird dynamics
大沼泽地涉水鸟动态的跨尺度预测
  • 批准号:
    2326954
  • 财政年份:
    2024
  • 资助金额:
    $ 15万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Towards the next generation probabilistic flood forecasting system for the UK
英国下一代概率洪水预报系统
  • 批准号:
    2907694
  • 财政年份:
    2024
  • 资助金额:
    $ 15万
  • 项目类别:
    Studentship
SBIR Phase I: Subseasonal Forecasting and Climate Risk Analytics Combining Physics and AI
SBIR 第一阶段:结合物理和人工智能的次季节预报和气候风险分析
  • 批准号:
    2335210
  • 财政年份:
    2024
  • 资助金额:
    $ 15万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Water IMPACT: Water emissions forecasting tool to Introduce the Modelling Potential of water quality Actions to reach Climate-change Targets
水影响:水排放预测工具,介绍水质建模潜力 实现气候变化目标的行动
  • 批准号:
    10103499
  • 财政年份:
    2024
  • 资助金额:
    $ 15万
  • 项目类别:
    Collaborative R&D
Integrating and scaling seasonal climate-driven dengue forecasting
整合和扩展季节性气候驱动的登革热预测
  • 批准号:
    MR/Y004663/1
  • 财政年份:
    2024
  • 资助金额:
    $ 15万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Solar forecasting and future sustainable power systems
太阳能预测和未来可持续电力系统
  • 批准号:
    2905679
  • 财政年份:
    2024
  • 资助金额:
    $ 15万
  • 项目类别:
    Studentship
EAGER: IMPRESS-U: Modeling and Forecasting of Infection Spread in War and Post War Settings Using Epidemiological, Behavioral and Genomic Surveillance Data
EAGER:IMPRESS-U:使用流行病学、行为和基因组监测数据对战争和战后环境中的感染传播进行建模和预测
  • 批准号:
    2412914
  • 财政年份:
    2024
  • 资助金额:
    $ 15万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
{{ showInfoDetail.title }}

作者:{{ showInfoDetail.author }}

知道了