Exploring the pathways to deep decarbonization of transport sector in the post-COVID's new normal

探索后疫情新常态下交通运输深度脱碳之路

• 批准号: 21K17926
• 负责人: 張 潤森
• 金额: $ 2.25万
• 依托单位: The University of Tokyo (2022)Hiroshima University (2021)
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2021-04-01 至 2024-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-21K17926/
• 关键词: transport; model coupling; decarbonization; post-COVID; new normal; integrated methodology

In the fiscal year 2022, my main accomplishment was the coupling of the transport model and a bottom-up, technology-rich, energy system model, which had been completed in the previous fiscal year. The energy system model was integrated with the regional transport model to determine the energy service demand based on the transport model output. To meet a given transport demand, the optimal set of energy technologies in the transport sector was calculated endogenously using linear optimization while minimizing the total system costs under certain constraints.Firstly, mode-specific transport demand calculated by the transport model was input into the energy system model to determine the optimal technology mix. Energy consumption was then estimated based on the amount of energy consumed by each specific energy type and technology combination, while CO2 emissions were calculated using the emission factors for each energy type.Subsequently, the optimal technology combinations and costs were passed back to the transport model to update the generalized transport cost based on the revised technology mix. An iterative method was utilized to solve the convergence problem of model coupling. The feedback loop between the energy system model and the transport model was continued until a converged solution was obtained, in which the transport demands and the technology combinations calculated by both models remained stable across successive iterations.

在2022财年，我的主要成就是将交通模型与上一财年已完成的自下而上、技术丰富的能源系统模型相结合。将能源系统模型与区域交通模型相结合，根据交通模型的输出确定能源服务需求。为满足给定的运输需求，在一定的约束条件下，以系统总成本最小为目标，利用线性优化方法内生地计算出运输部门的最优能源技术组合：首先，将运输模型计算出的特定运输方式的运输需求输入到能源系统模型中，确定最优技术组合。然后，根据各能源种类和技术组合的能源消耗量计算能源消耗量，根据各能源种类的排放系数计算CO2排放量，并将最佳技术组合和成本传回运输模型，根据修正后的技术组合更新广义运输成本。采用迭代法解决了模型耦合的收敛问题。能源系统模型和运输模型之间的反馈循环一直持续到获得收敛解，其中由两个模型计算的运输需求和技术组合在连续迭代中保持稳定。

项目成果

Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on carbon emissions from the road transport sector in China (Chapt 26 in: Transportation Amid Pandemics: Practices and Policies)

评估 COVID-19 对中国道路运输行业碳排放的影响（第 26 章：大流行期间的运输：实践和政策）

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Runsen Zhang;Junyi Zhang;Wenchao Wu;Tatsuya Hanaoka
• 通讯作者: Tatsuya Hanaoka

Implications of declining household economies of scale on electricity consumption and sustainability in China

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.106981
• 发表时间: 2021-02-15
• 期刊: ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
• 影响因子: 7
• 作者: Wu, Wenchao;Kanamori, Yuko;Masui, Toshihiko
• 通讯作者: Masui, Toshihiko

How the transport sector is addressing the opportunities and challenges of carbon neutrality?

交通运输部门如何应对碳中和的机遇和挑战？

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Junyi Zhang;Tao Feng;Jing Kang;Shuangjin Li;Rui Liu;Shuang Ma;Baoxin Zhai;Runsen Zhang;Hongxiang Ding & Taoxing Zhu;Runsen Zhang;Runsen Zhang;Runsen Zhang;Runsen Zhang;Runsen Zhang
• 通讯作者: Runsen Zhang

Rethinking the role of the transport sector in post-COVID’s new normal toward China’s carbon-neutral goal by 2060

重新思考交通运输业在后疫情新常态中的作用，以实现中国到 2060 年的碳中和目标

• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Runsen Zhang;Tatsuya Hanaoka;Zhang Runsen;Zhang Runsen;Zhang Runsen;Zhang Runsen
• 通讯作者: Zhang Runsen

The National Bureau of Asian Research(米国)

美国国家亚洲研究局