Migration networks and risk diversification: How shocks in the US affect job search strategies in Mexico

过去50年来，向发达国家的国际移徙大幅增加。这对目的地国和原籍国都产生了重大影响。人们普遍认为，移民促进了目的地国生产力的提高。但是，尽管国际移徙和汇款具有巨大的经济意义，我们仍然对国际移徙网络的发展影响知之甚少。本项目调查国际移徙对原籍国家庭决策的影响。以前的文献主要集中于汇款流入对收入的影响，而本项目则试图确定进入国际移徙网络-我指的是移徙者与其留在国内的家人和朋友之间的网络-是否对原籍国的家庭产生事先保险影响。有大量证据表明，不确定性会影响规避风险的家庭和个人的决策。如果移徙网络有助于实现收入多样化的目标，那么它们也应该影响对风险敏感的家庭决定。例如，如果厌恶风险的求职者更喜欢低回报低风险的工作，而不是结果不确定但质量更好的耗时的求职活动，那么通过移民网络提供保险可以提高工作匹配的质量，并在汇款流入的直接好处之外提高原籍国的福利。该项目探讨了墨西哥和美国之间的移民网络受到的冲击，这些冲击影响了移民网络的（感知）效率-在未来受到冲击时获得收入支持的可能性。这类冲击的例子包括移民法中针对具体目的地的变化、驱逐出境做法或经济衰退。第一步，该项目将探索新的数据源（即社交媒体数据），以确定美国和墨西哥之间在国家以下一级的特定区域移民网络。使用高频劳动力调查，它将分析如何冲击这些网络影响家庭的求职策略，他们的职业选择，并最终在墨西哥的工作质量。估计策略结合了空间变化的典型目的地从墨西哥在美国境内的移民，并在这些移民的目的地的区域随时间变化的冲击，在一个差异中的差异approach.The结果在这个项目中产生的目的是发言的成本和收益与国际移民，以及阐明移民决策的决定因素，目前的国际辩论。

International migration to developed countries has risen substantially over the last five decades. This has had strong implications for destination as well as origin countries. It is generally agreed that immigration triggered productivity gains in destination countries. But despite the huge economic relevance of international migration and remittances, we still know fairly little about the development effects of international migration networks.This project investigates the effects of international migration on household decision making in origin countries. While previous literature has largely focused on income effects of remittances inflows, this project seeks to establish if having access to international migration networks – whereby I mean networks between migrants and their family and friends left behind – has an ex-ante insurance effect on households in origin countries. There is substantial evidence that uncertainty affects decision making of risk-averse households and individuals. If migration networks serve an income diversification objective, then they should also affect household decisions that are sensitive to risk. If, for example, risk-averse job seekers prefer low-return low-risk jobs over time-consuming job search activities with uncertain – but better quality – outcomes, then providing insurance via migration networks can improve the quality of job matches, and be welfare enhancing in origin countries beyond the direct benefits of remittances inflows.Due to the endogeneity of migration decisions, this project explores shocks to migration networks between Mexico and the United States (US) that affect the (perceived) efficacy of migration networks – in terms of the probability of receiving income support in case of a shock in the future. Examples for such shocks are destination-specific changes in immigration laws, deportation practices or economic downturns. In a first step, this project will explore new data sources (i.e. social media data) to identify region-specific migration networks between the US and Mexico at the sub-national level. Using high-frequency labor force surveys, it will then analyze how shocks to these networks affect households’ job search strategies, their occupational choices and ultimately job quality in Mexico. The estimation strategy combines spatial variation in the typical destination of migrants from Mexico within the US, and time-variant shocks in the region of destination of these migrants, in a difference-in-differences approach.The results produced in this project aim to speak to the current international debate on the costs and benefits associated with international migration, as well as to shed light on the determinants of migratory decisions.