FOR 2936: Climate Change and Health in Sub-Saharan Africa

这个跨学科的研究单位（RU）解决了撒哈拉以南非洲气候变化和健康的巨大证据差距。在第一个RU阶段，我们重点研究气候变化的影响，评估潜在的适应战略，以解除这些影响，并预测，健康影响和适应战略的潜在健康效益，未来的气候情景。我们在布基纳法索西北部和肯尼亚西南部的农村卫生和人口监测系统工作，那里的营养不良、心血管热应激和疟疾构成了主要的健康问题。在这两个地点，我们将HDSS发展为气候就绪的人口观测站，提供整个人口队列的人口统计，健康，气候，社会经济，农业和行为数据。现有的未来气候，气候影响和经济影响的模型通过缩小尺度，偏差校正和全国范围的经济和健康数据来适应研究地点。气候变化和三个健康成果之间的历史和未来联系已经建立，并将在第二个RU阶段得到推进。重要的是，我们将引入一个额外的研究重点适应措施，提供最佳做法的例子，设计，实施和评估适应战略，应用技术创新，行为改变或政策选择。RU第二阶段的总体目标是深入了解撒哈拉以南非洲地区当前和未来气候情景下当地适应战略对健康的有效性。我们有四个具体目标：i）确定和量化未来气候变化对儿童营养不良、疟疾和热应激的潜在影响; ii）确定具体适应政策和干预措施在减少气候对儿童营养不良、疟疾和热应激影响方面的有效性和潜在社会经济成本; ㈢量化国家一级与气候有关的健康影响和适应战略的经济影响; ㈣确定人口流动对与气候变化有关的健康影响和适应战略的重要性。在第二阶段，我们将把应对人员流动问题纳入研究议程，因为这些问题在撒哈拉以南非洲气候变化与健康的关系中发挥着重要作用。我们在健康科学、自然科学和社会科学方面的共同努力将为撒哈拉以南非洲的政策实施和投资决策提供独特的证据，以减缓气候变化，适应现有的后果，并加强当地的卫生系统。

This interdisciplinary Research Unit (RU) addresses the astonishingly big evidence gap on climate change and health in sub-Saharan Africa. In the first RU phase, we focused on studying the climate change impacts, evaluating potential adaptation strategies to lift those impacts, and projecting both, the health impacts and the potential health-benefits from adaptation strategies, to future climate scenarios. We work in rural Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) in north-western Burkina Faso and south-western Kenya, where undernutrition, cardiovascular heat-stress, and malaria constitute major health problems. In both sites, we evolved the HDSS to climate-ready population observatories with demographic, health, climate, socio-economic, agriculture, and behaviour data of entire population cohorts. The existing models for future climate, climate impacts, and economic effects were tailored to the study locations through downscaling, bias-correction, and nation-wide economic and health data. Historical and prospective links between climate change and the three health outcomes were established, and will be advanced in the second RU phase. Importantly, we will introduce an additional research focus on adaptation measures, providing best-practice examples for designing, implementing and evaluating adaptation strategies that apply technological innovation, behaviour change or policy options. The overarching goal of the second RU phase is to gain in-depth understanding about the effectiveness of local adaptation strategies on health in sub-Saharan Africa – today and under future climate scenarios. We have four specific objectives: i) Identify and quantify potential impacts of future climate change on child undernutrition, malaria and heat stress; ii) Determine the effectiveness and potential socio-economic costs of specific adaptation policies and interventions with respect to reducing climate impacts on child undernutrition, malaria, and heat stress; iii) Quantify the economic effects of climate-related health impacts and adaptation strategies at the national level; and iv) Establish the importance of human mobility for climate change-related health impacts and adaptation strategies. In phase 2, we will integrate human mobility responses in the research agenda, because they play an important role in the nexus of climate change and health in sub-Saharan Africa. Our concerted efforts from health sciences, natural sciences, and social sciences will generate unique evidence for decision making about policy implementation and investments in sub-Saharan Africa in order to mitigate climate change, adapt to the existing consequences, and strengthen the local health systems.