The Persistence of Low Growth and Low Inflation in a New Keynesian Model with Human Capital-based Endogenous Growth

基于人力资本的内生增长的新凯恩斯主义模型中低增长和低通胀的持续性

• 批准号: 411622993
• 负责人: Mewael Frezghi Tesfaselassie, Ph.D.
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Lehrstuhl für VWL, Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2017-12-31 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/411622993?language=en
• 关键词: Persistence; Low; Growth; Inflation; New

Recent academic and policy discussions have focused on two related issues: (i) whether advanced countries are trapped in a prolonged period of low growth-low inflation and (ii) whether the persistence of low inflation despite declining unemployment reflects a flattening of the Phillips curve, with implications for the effectiveness of aggregate demand policies. However, there is still a lack of a coherent theoretical framework for understanding these phenomena. The proposed project aims to fill this gap by developing a New-Keynesian DSGE model that is based on three pillars: endogenous growth based on human capital accumulation, labor market frictions and nominal price inertia. The proposed project relies on our preliminary work on business cycle effects of exogenous growth, which already provides a partial picture of the endogenous interaction between growth and inflation. The proposed project intends to endogenize long-run growth by considering the human capital channel and its interaction with labor market frictions, price inertia, and business cycle shocks.

最近的学术和政策讨论集中在两个相关的问题上：（一）发达国家是否陷入了长期的低增长-低通货膨胀;（二）尽管失业率下降，但低通货膨胀率持续存在是否反映了菲利普斯曲线的平坦化，从而对总需求政策的有效性产生影响。然而，仍然缺乏一个连贯的理论框架来理解这些现象。该项目旨在通过开发新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型来填补这一空白，该模型基于三个支柱：基于人力资本积累的内生增长，劳动力市场摩擦和名义价格惯性。拟议的项目依赖于我们对外生增长的商业周期效应的初步工作，这已经提供了增长和通货膨胀之间的内生相互作用的部分图片。该项目旨在通过考虑人力资本渠道及其与劳动力市场摩擦，价格惯性和商业周期冲击的相互作用来实现长期增长的内生化。