Unraveling drivers of species diversification – an integrative deep-time approach on continental aquatic biota

了解控制物种多样性和多样化的过程和设置是一个正在进行的激烈研究课题。是什么促成或限制了物种的最大数量？驱动物种形成和灭绝的因素是什么？这些驱动因素在什么空间和时间尺度上起作用？调查这些问题的研究得出了相当不同的答案。推断多样化驱动因素的一个主要限制是迄今为止所采用的固定时间范围。假设相同的过程在不同的时间尺度上均匀地运作，可能会严重妨碍我们理解控制多样化的因素的能力。此外，解决多种（生物和非生物）因素维持生物多样性和驱动更替的影响和相互作用至关重要。这个项目的目标是揭示多样化的驱动因素（组合）以及它们在什么时空尺度上是相关的。我们将使用来自北美和欧洲的淡水腹足类化石的广泛数据集，涵盖过去100万年。潜在的驱动因素包括非生物因素（气候、轨道循环和构造复杂性）和生物因素（竞争强度、捕食压力和被动扩散潜力）。在各种空间、生境和生活方式水平上测量时间影响。将开发一种新的“浮动窗口”方法，可以评估不同时间框架内多样化率和潜在驱动因素之间的共变。通过比较欧洲和北美之间（一系列）驱动因素的影响，我们还旨在区分全球和区域驱动因素。分析管道将被整合到一个全面的开源R包中。我们期望我们在深时间和跨大陆方法中的新分析技术的贡献将为多样化动力学的研究提供一个新的和综合的视角。它将讨论驱动因素作用于多样化进程的可变时间和空间尺度的重要性。预期的结果将有助于在不同尺度上确定和量化地球历史上的转折点。该项目将成为未来评估当前（和预期的未来）全球变化情景对当前生物多样性危机影响的重要基线。

Understanding processes and settings controlling species diversity and diversification is an ongoing subject of intense research. What enables or limits maximum species numbers? What factors drive speciation and extinction? On what spatial and temporal scales do these drivers act? Studies investigating these questions have yielded quite diverging answers. A main limitation to inferring drivers of diversification has been the fixed temporal scope applied so far. Assuming that the same processes operate uniformly across different time scales might severely hamper our ability to understand the factors controlling diversification. Also, it is of paramount importance to address the impact and interplay of multiple (biotic and abiotic) factors sustaining biodiversity and driving turnover.The goal of this project is to unravel (combinations of) drivers of diversification and at what spatiotemporal scales they are relevant. We will use an extensive dataset of fossil freshwater gastropods from North America and Europe covering the past 100 myr. Potential drivers include both abiotic (climate, orbital cyclicity and tectonic complexity) and biotic factors (competition intensity, predation pressure and passive dispersal potential). Temporal impacts are measured at a variety of spatial, habitat and life style levels. A novel “floating windows” approach will be developed that allows assessing covariation between diversification rates and potential drivers across variable time frames. By comparing impact of (sets of) drivers between Europe and North America through time we also aim to distinguish between global and regional drivers. The analytical pipeline will be combined in a comprehensive open-source R package.We expect that our contribution featuring novel analytical techniques in a deep-time and transcontinental approach will place a new and integrated perspective on the study of diversification dynamics. It will address the importance of the variable temporal and spatial scales at which drivers act on diversification processes. The anticipated results will help to identify and quantify tipping points in Earth history on various scales. The project will constitute an important baseline for future assessments of the impact of contemporary (and expected future) global change scenarios on the current biodiversity crisis.