Seasonality and interannual to centennial climate variability in the Caribbean during the last interlglacial - Combining coral records, stalagmite records and climate models (CaribClim II)

加勒比地区末次间冰期的季节性和年际至百年气候变化 - 结合珊瑚记录、石笋记录和气候模型 (CaribClim II)

• 批准号: 42307808
• 负责人: Dr. Thomas Felis
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Geologie
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2006-12-31 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/42307808?language=en
• 关键词: Seasonality; interannual; centennial; climate; variability

The last interglacial was slightly warmer than present. Thus, this period ~125,000 years ago has been suggested to serve as partial analogue for 1-2 °C global warming scenarios that consider no further increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The last interglacial is recent enough to obtain well-preserved and accurately dated climate records and offers a window to study the potential consequences of contemporary global warming. We suggest reconstructing the range of seasonality and interannual to centennial climate variability in the Caribbean during the last interglacial by analysing fossil corals from Bonaire and stalagmites from Puerto Rico. Combined with climate model simulations, we will identify forcing mechanisms of climate variability observed in the marine and terrestrial archives. Sr/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios in corals will provide monthly resolved reconstructions of temperature and hydrologic balance at the sea surface for short time intervals, robustly resolving the annual cycle. Stable isotope signals in stalagmites will provide reconstructions of rainfall intensity in near-decadal resolution over several millennia. State-of-the-art climate models will be used to simulate the evolution of the hydrological cycle (oxygen isotopes) and surface temperature over decades to millennia. Our approach will quantify the range of natural climate variability in the Caribbean during a period slightly warmer than today on timescales relevant for society.

上一次间冰期的温度比现在略高。因此，约125,000年前的这段时间被建议作为1-2℃全球变暖情景的部分类比，这些情景不考虑大气温室气体浓度的进一步增加。最后一次间冰期足够近，足以获得保存完好、年代准确的气候记录，并为研究当代全球变暖的潜在后果提供了一个窗口。我们建议通过分析博内尔的珊瑚化石和波多黎各的石笋，重建加勒比地区上一次间冰期的季节性和年际至百年气候变化范围。结合气候模式模拟，我们将确定在海洋和陆地档案中观察到的气候变异性的强迫机制。珊瑚中的锶/钙和氧同位素比值将在短时间间隔内提供海面温度和水文平衡的每月分辨率重建，有力地解析年度循环。石笋中稳定的同位素信号将提供几千年来近十年分辨率的降雨强度的重建。最先进的气候模型将被用来模拟几十年到几千年的水文循环(氧同位素)和地表温度的演变。我们的方法将根据与社会相关的时间尺度，量化加勒比地区在比今天略温暖的时期内自然气候变化的范围。