Seasonality and interannual to centennial climate variability in the Caribbean during the last interlglacial - Combining coral records, stalagmite records and climate models (CaribClim II)

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The last interglacial was slightly warmer than present. Thus, this period ~125,000 years ago has been suggested to serve as partial analogue for 1-2 °C global warming scenarios that consider no further increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The last interglacial is recent enough to obtain well-preserved and accurately dated climate records and offers a window to study the potential consequences of contemporary global warming. We suggest reconstructing the range of seasonality and interannual to centennial climate variability in the Caribbean during the last interglacial by analysing fossil corals from Bonaire and stalagmites from Puerto Rico. Combined with climate model simulations, we will identify forcing mechanisms of climate variability observed in the marine and terrestrial archives. Sr/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios in corals will provide monthly resolved reconstructions of temperature and hydrologic balance at the sea surface for short time intervals, robustly resolving the annual cycle. Stable isotope signals in stalagmites will provide reconstructions of rainfall intensity in near-decadal resolution over several millennia. State-of-the-art climate models will be used to simulate the evolution of the hydrological cycle (oxygen isotopes) and surface temperature over decades to millennia. Our approach will quantify the range of natural climate variability in the Caribbean during a period slightly warmer than today on timescales relevant for society.