Seasonality and interannual climate variability in the Caribbean during the last interglacial from coral records

最后一次间冰期比现在稍微暖和一些。因此，这一时期~ 12.5万年前被认为是1-2°C全球变暖情景的部分模拟，其中考虑到大气温室气体浓度没有进一步增加。最后一次间冰期是最近的，足以获得保存完好和准确的气候记录，并为研究当代全球变暖的潜在后果提供了一个窗口。我们建议通过分析博内尔岛的珊瑚化石，重建加勒比地区最后一次间冰期的季节性和年际气候变化范围。珊瑚骨架中的Sr/Ca和氧同位素比值将提供在短时间间隔内海面温度和水文平衡的月分辨重建，有力地解决了年循环问题。结合一个合作小组进行的气候模式模拟，我们将确定在珊瑚档案中观测到的气候变率的强迫机制。我们的方法将有助于在与社会相关的时间尺度上量化加勒比地区在比今天稍微温暖的时期的自然气候变化范围。

The last interglacial was slightly warmer than present. Thus, this period ~125,000 years ago has been suggested to serve as partial analogue for 1-2 °C global warming scenarios that consider no further increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The last interglacial is recent enough to obtain well-preserved and accurately dated climate records and offers a window to study the potential consequences of contemporary global warming. We suggest reconstructing the range of seasonality and interannual climate variability in the Caribbean during the last interglacial by analysing fossil corals from Bonaire. Sr/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios in coral skeletons will provide monthly resolved reconstructions of temperature and hydrologic balance at the sea surface for short time intervals, robustly resolving the annual cycle. Combined with climate model simulations performed by a collaborating group, we will identify forcing mechanisms of climate variability observed in the coral archives. Our approach will contribute to quantify the range of natural climate variability in the Caribbean during a period slightly warmer than today on timescales relevant for society.