Seasonality and interannual climate variability in the Caribbean during the last interglacial from coral records

上一次间冰期的温度比现在略高。因此，约125,000年前的这段时间被建议作为1-2℃全球变暖情景的部分类比，这些情景不考虑大气温室气体浓度的进一步增加。最后一次间冰期足够近，足以获得保存完好、年代准确的气候记录，并为研究当代全球变暖的潜在后果提供了一个窗口。我们建议通过分析博内尔的珊瑚化石，重建上一次间冰期加勒比地区的季节性和年际气候变化范围。珊瑚骨架中的锶/钙和氧同位素比值将在短时间间隔内提供海面温度和水文平衡的每月分辨率重建，有力地解析年度循环。结合一个合作小组进行的气候模型模拟，我们将确定珊瑚档案中观察到的气候变异性的强迫机制。我们的办法将有助于在与社会有关的时间尺度上，量化加勒比地区在比今天稍微温暖的时期内自然气候变化的范围。

The last interglacial was slightly warmer than present. Thus, this period ~125,000 years ago has been suggested to serve as partial analogue for 1-2 °C global warming scenarios that consider no further increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The last interglacial is recent enough to obtain well-preserved and accurately dated climate records and offers a window to study the potential consequences of contemporary global warming. We suggest reconstructing the range of seasonality and interannual climate variability in the Caribbean during the last interglacial by analysing fossil corals from Bonaire. Sr/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios in coral skeletons will provide monthly resolved reconstructions of temperature and hydrologic balance at the sea surface for short time intervals, robustly resolving the annual cycle. Combined with climate model simulations performed by a collaborating group, we will identify forcing mechanisms of climate variability observed in the coral archives. Our approach will contribute to quantify the range of natural climate variability in the Caribbean during a period slightly warmer than today on timescales relevant for society.