Weather and climate-related impacts on crop yields and food production on regional and national scale

天气和气候相关对区域和国家范围内农作物产量和粮食生产的影响

• 批准号: 427389345
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Hermann Lotze-Campen
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Units
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2018-12-31 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/427389345?language=en
• 关键词: Weather; climate; related; impacts; crop

Agricultural production strongly depends on climate and weather conditions in addition to the socio-economic environment. Hence, future agricultural production, food prices and trade will be affected by global climate change. Climate change impacts show negative impacts on future global agricultural production. While most industrial countries will be affected rather modestly, some of the biggest negative impacts with respect to food availability and undernutrition can be expected for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In particular declining water availability due to changing climate conditions and a more erratic precipitation will increase the pressure on the food production system in Burkina Faso and Kenya. In addition to this, population growth and changing diets require an increase in food production, which is limited by the potential for expanding the arable land area. These trends foster food insecurity, prevent the establishment of resilient agricultural systems and reduce farmers’ capacity to cope with climate change. For smallholder and subsistence farmers in rural SSA, years with crop yield losses often result in insufficient child nutrition status and lead to decreasing child survival rates. Yield losses and yield failures are projected to occur with increasing frequency in a changing climate. Climate-attributable crop yield losses were shown to result in severe food production shortfalls, which have contributed to food insecurity and undernutrition. For this purpose, we developed a semi-empirical crop model (empirical model which uses process-based inputs) to assess crop yields and to identify risks for potential yield losses and failures caused by adverse weather conditions. Using these models, we were able to show the impact of weather trends on child mortality to quantify nutrition-related health impacts for past and future weather conditions for rural Burkina Faso. To further explore this link, there is a need to widen the analysis both in terms of regional scope (bringing the assessment to household, district and national scale) as well as in terms of exploring varying degrees of food security and health impacts from yield losses. This research therefore intends to address these questions on different spatial scales and scopes. To do so, we will further develop the semi-empirical crop modelling approach to provide assessments for yield impacts (quantity, quality) for key crops for Kenya and Burkina Faso on regional and national level. The applied crop modelling approach will differentiate between weather-related and non-weather-related yield influences and will provide information on crop yield failures. This will provide information to allow farmers adjusting their agronomic management and increasing their adaptive capacity to climate change.

除社会经济环境外，农业生产在很大程度上取决于气候和天气条件。因此，未来的农业生产、粮食价格和贸易都将受到全球气候变化的影响。气候变化的影响显示出对未来全球农业生产的负面影响。虽然大多数工业国家将受到相当轻微的影响，但在粮食供应和营养不良方面，预计撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)将受到一些最大的负面影响。特别是，气候条件变化和降水更加反复无常导致可用水减少，这将增加布基纳法索和肯尼亚粮食生产系统的压力。除此之外，人口增长和不断变化的饮食要求增加粮食产量，这受到扩大耕地面积的潜力的限制。这些趋势助长了粮食不安全，阻碍了有弹性的农业系统的建立，并降低了农民应对气候变化的能力。对于南非农村地区的小农和自给自足的农民来说，作物减产多年往往会导致儿童营养状况不足，并导致儿童存活率下降。在不断变化的气候中，产量损失和产量失败预计将以越来越频繁的方式发生。气候造成的作物产量损失会导致严重的粮食生产短缺，从而造成粮食不安全和营养不良。为此，我们开发了一个半经验作物模型(使用基于过程的投入的经验模型)来评估作物产量，并确定不利天气条件导致的潜在产量损失和失败的风险。使用这些模型，我们能够显示天气趋势对儿童死亡率的影响，以量化布基纳法索农村过去和未来天气条件下与营养相关的健康影响。为了进一步探讨这一联系，有必要扩大区域范围的分析(将评估范围扩大到家庭、地区和国家范围)，并探讨产量损失对粮食安全和健康的不同程度的影响。因此，本研究打算在不同的空间尺度和范围内解决这些问题。为此，我们将进一步发展半经验作物模型方法，在区域和国家层面评估肯尼亚和布基纳法索主要作物的产量影响(数量、质量)。应用的作物模型方法将区分与天气有关和与天气无关的产量影响，并将提供有关作物产量损失的信息。这将提供信息，使农民能够调整他们的农艺管理，提高他们对气候变化的适应能力。