Weather and climate-related impacts on crop yields and food production on regional and national scale

除了社会经济环境外，农业生产还在很大程度上取决于气候和天气条件。因此，未来的农业生产、粮食价格和贸易将受到全球气候变化的影响。气候变化的影响显示出对未来全球农业生产的负面影响。虽然大多数工业化国家将受到相当轻微的影响，但撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）预计将受到粮食供应和营养不良方面的一些最大负面影响。特别是，由于气候条件变化和降水更加不稳定，水供应量减少，将增加布基纳法索和肯尼亚粮食生产系统的压力。除此之外，人口增长和饮食的变化需要增加粮食生产，而粮食生产受到扩大可耕地面积潜力的限制。这些趋势加剧了粮食不安全，阻碍了建立有复原力的农业系统，并降低了农民科普气候变化的能力。对于撒南非洲农村的小农和自给农民来说，作物减产的年份往往导致儿童营养状况不佳，并导致儿童存活率下降。预计在气候变化的情况下，产量损失和产量失败将越来越频繁地发生。气候造成的作物产量损失已证明导致严重的粮食生产短缺，从而加剧了粮食不安全和营养不良。为此，我们开发了一种半经验作物模型（使用基于过程的输入的经验模型），以评估作物产量，并确定由不利天气条件造成的潜在产量损失和失败的风险。使用这些模型，我们能够显示天气趋势对儿童死亡率的影响，以量化布基纳法索农村过去和未来天气条件对营养相关健康的影响。为了进一步探讨这一联系，有必要扩大分析范围，既包括区域范围（将评估扩大到家庭、地区和国家范围），也包括探讨产量损失对粮食安全和健康的不同程度影响。因此，本研究打算在不同的空间尺度和范围内解决这些问题。为此，我们将进一步开发半经验作物建模方法，以评估肯尼亚和布基纳法索在区域和国家层面对主要作物的产量影响（数量，质量）。所应用的作物建模方法将区分与天气有关和与天气无关的产量影响，并将提供关于作物减产的信息。这将提供信息，使农民能够调整其农艺管理，提高其适应气候变化的能力。

Agricultural production strongly depends on climate and weather conditions in addition to the socio-economic environment. Hence, future agricultural production, food prices and trade will be affected by global climate change. Climate change impacts show negative impacts on future global agricultural production. While most industrial countries will be affected rather modestly, some of the biggest negative impacts with respect to food availability and undernutrition can be expected for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In particular declining water availability due to changing climate conditions and a more erratic precipitation will increase the pressure on the food production system in Burkina Faso and Kenya. In addition to this, population growth and changing diets require an increase in food production, which is limited by the potential for expanding the arable land area. These trends foster food insecurity, prevent the establishment of resilient agricultural systems and reduce farmers’ capacity to cope with climate change. For smallholder and subsistence farmers in rural SSA, years with crop yield losses often result in insufficient child nutrition status and lead to decreasing child survival rates. Yield losses and yield failures are projected to occur with increasing frequency in a changing climate. Climate-attributable crop yield losses were shown to result in severe food production shortfalls, which have contributed to food insecurity and undernutrition. For this purpose, we developed a semi-empirical crop model (empirical model which uses process-based inputs) to assess crop yields and to identify risks for potential yield losses and failures caused by adverse weather conditions. Using these models, we were able to show the impact of weather trends on child mortality to quantify nutrition-related health impacts for past and future weather conditions for rural Burkina Faso. To further explore this link, there is a need to widen the analysis both in terms of regional scope (bringing the assessment to household, district and national scale) as well as in terms of exploring varying degrees of food security and health impacts from yield losses. This research therefore intends to address these questions on different spatial scales and scopes. To do so, we will further develop the semi-empirical crop modelling approach to provide assessments for yield impacts (quantity, quality) for key crops for Kenya and Burkina Faso on regional and national level. The applied crop modelling approach will differentiate between weather-related and non-weather-related yield influences and will provide information on crop yield failures. This will provide information to allow farmers adjusting their agronomic management and increasing their adaptive capacity to climate change.