Connecting weather-related health risk and climate change projections in relation to rural health disparities

项目摘要 现在的全球气温已经比世纪后半叶高出1.2摄氏度。政府间 气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）预测，在未来几十年内，我们的气温将上升1.5摄氏度。而 气候变化的健康影响影响到每个人，一些群体的相关健康风险更高 特别是少数民族或低收入者。这是气候变化 变化可能会加剧现有的环境正义问题。绝大多数以前的研究如何 然而，天气对健康的影响以及气候变化下的这些关系主要集中在城市地区， 这种影响在农村地区可能不同，因为农村地区有不同的天气模式、绿地和人口。 有限的研究表明，农村地区的种族健康差异可能比城市地区更大。的 国家少数民族健康和健康差异研究所（NIMHD）和NIH承认农村人口， 特别是农村地区的有色人种，是健康差距严重的人群。父R 01调查 天气和空气污染如何影响弗吉尼亚州住院和不良出生结果的风险， 西弗吉尼亚州，重点是环境健康差异。特别是，我们调查这些差异， 暴露和相关的健康反应，由几个个人和社区一级的特点， 包括城市化（例如，对农村人口和城市人口的不同影响）、种族/族裔、社会经济 位置和其他因素。热浪和热浪受到气候变化的影响，总体上 温度和热浪发生更频繁，持续时间更长，燃烧更热。这一行政 补充将估计未来在特定气候变化下的热量和热浪的健康负担 情景，包括按亚群（例如，城市化，种族/民族），从而提供关键证据， 气候变化带来的公共卫生负担。这项工作是跨学科的，结合了流行病学的专业知识 和大气科学，以及最先进的气象和气候变化建模。我们 在气候变化的多种情景下估计热浪和热浪带来的健康风险， 不同的温室气体和能源排放情景。这些发现可以帮助决策者，从 社区向政府官员，就诸如热行动计划和与建筑有关的决定等问题， 环境（例如，绿色城市以缓解城市热岛效应）。我们将绘制出 气候变化下的暴露，将公开提供。另外，当我们完成分析后， 我们对气候变化下的热量和热浪的估计将公开， 更广泛的科学界和促进更多的关于气候变化和健康的研究。这项工作奠定了 为未来研究气候变化和健康，如寒冷和空气污染的基础。拟议 工作涉及NIH气候变化和健康倡议的3个核心支柱（健康影响研究，健康 平等、培训和能力建设），并为第四支柱（干预研究）做出贡献。

PROJECT SUMMARY The world is already 1.2 oC warmer now than in the second half of the 19th century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that we will cross a 1.5 oC increase in the coming decades. While the health impacts of climate change affect everyone, some groups are at higher risk for the associated health burden, particularly racial/ethnic minority or low income persons. This is one pathway through which climate change could exacerbate existing issues of environmental justice. The vast majority of previous studies on how weather impacts health, and these relationships under climate change, have focused on urban areas, however such impacts could differ in rural areas, which have different weather patterns, greenspace, and populations. Limited research suggests that racial health disparities may be larger in rural areas than in urban settings. The National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities (NIMHD) and NIH recognize rural populations, and people of color in rural areas in particular, as critical health disparities populations. The parent R01 investigates how weather and air pollution affect risk of hospital admissions and adverse birth outcomes in Virginia and West Virginia, with a focus on environmental health disparities. In particular, we investigate differences in these exposures and in associated health responses by several individual- and community-level characteristics including urbanicity (e.g., different impacts for rural vs. urban populations), race/ethnicity, socio-economic position, and other factors. Heat and heat waves are impacted by climate change, with overall higher temperatures and heat waves that occur more frequently, last longer, and burn hotter. This Administrative Supplement would estimate health burdens of heat and heat waves in the future, under specific climate change scenarios, including by subpopulation (e.g., by urbanicity, race/ethnicity), thereby providing critical evidence on public health burdens from climate change. The work is transdisciplinary, combining expertise in epidemiology and atmospheric science, with state-of-the-science meteorological and climate change modeling. We would estimate health risks from heat and heat waves under a changing climate for multiple scenarios reflecting different greenhouse gas and energy emissions scenarios. These findings can aid decision-makers, from communities to government officials, on issues such as heat action plans and decisions related to the built environment (e.g., green cities to alleviate the urban heat island effect). We will generate maps of changes in exposures under climate change that will be made publicly available. Also, when we have completed analysis our estimates of heat and heat waves under climate change will be made publicly available to benefit the broader scientific community and facilitate additional studies on climate change and health. This work lays the foundation for future research on climate change and health, such as for cold and air pollution. The proposed work addresses 3 Core Pillars in NIH’s Climate Change and Health Initiative (Health Effects Research, Health Equity, Training and Capacity Building) and contributes to the 4th Pillar (Intervention Research).