Fuzzy Drought Control Considering Uncertainty in Long-term Forecast

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The complexity of real time reservoir control during a drought consists of the following two aspects :1.Long-term rainfall and runoff prediction, which is key information for drought control, is not provided with high accuracy.2.The control strategy of the reservoir is defined by target releases and target pondages, and these two criteria become occasionally become both objective functions and constraints of the programming formulation.In full consideration of these points, a drought control system based on fuzzy decision making is developed in this study. The system developed herein is a mathematical model of current decision making process of drought control based on mutual consent among those concerned for drought control. The characteristics of the system can be summerized as follows :1.The transition process of the state of the reservoir is modeled as both stochastic system and fuzzy system according to the type of inflow prediction.2.the target release and the target pondage of the reservoir are expressed by fuzzy sets because the acceptable level of the change of these criteria depends much on human subjective views.Moreover, the relationship between the accuracy of inflow prediction and that of decision criteria is analyzed by the use of the system.