Fuzzy Drought Control Considering Uncertainty in Long-term Forecast

考虑长期预测不确定性的模糊抗旱

• 批准号: 03452210
• 负责人: TAKASAO Takuma
• 金额: $ 3.33万
• 依托单位: KYOTO UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 1991
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1991 至 1993
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-03452210/
• 关键词: Reservoir Control; Fuzzy Decision Making; Fuzzy Dynamic Programming; Drought; Long-term Forecast; Uncertainty; ファジイ理論; ファジイシステム; ファジイ多段決定; ファジ-理論; ファジイDP; ファジイ回帰式; 意思決定支援

The complexity of real time reservoir control during a drought consists of the following two aspects :1.Long-term rainfall and runoff prediction, which is key information for drought control, is not provided with high accuracy.2.The control strategy of the reservoir is defined by target releases and target pondages, and these two criteria become occasionally become both objective functions and constraints of the programming formulation.In full consideration of these points, a drought control system based on fuzzy decision making is developed in this study. The system developed herein is a mathematical model of current decision making process of drought control based on mutual consent among those concerned for drought control. The characteristics of the system can be summerized as follows :1.The transition process of the state of the reservoir is modeled as both stochastic system and fuzzy system according to the type of inflow prediction.2.the target release and the target pondage of the reservoir are expressed by fuzzy sets because the acceptable level of the change of these criteria depends much on human subjective views.Moreover, the relationship between the accuracy of inflow prediction and that of decision criteria is analyzed by the use of the system.

干旱期间水库实时调度的复杂性包括以下两个方面：1.长期降雨和径流预报作为旱情控制的关键信息，精度不高；2.水库调度策略是由目标放流和目标蓄水量确定的，这两个指标有时会成为规划公式的目标函数和约束条件。该系统是当前抗旱决策过程的数学模型，建立在抗旱相关者之间相互同意的基础上。该系统的特点可概括为：1.根据入库流量预测的类型，将水库状态的变化过程建模为随机系统和模糊系统；2.由于水库目标下泄和目标库容变化的可接受程度在很大程度上取决于人的主观看法，因此用模糊集来表示这些指标；同时，利用该系统分析了入库流量预测精度与决策准则精度之间的关系。

项目成果

Takasao, T.: "Drought control by fuzzy DP for a fuzzy system" Proc.of annual Conf.of Japan Society of Hydrology and water resources21GE02 : 1994. 90-91

Takasao, T.：“模糊系统的模糊 DP 的干旱控制”Proc.of Annual Conf.of Japan Society of Hydrology and Water resources21GE02 : 1994. 90-91

高棹 琢馬: "ファジイシステムに対するファジイDPを用いた渇水時貯水池操作" 水文・水資源学会1993年研究発表会要旨集. 90-91 (1993)

Takuma Takamasa：“使用模糊 DP 进行模糊系统的干旱期间的水库运行”日本水文水资源学会 1993 年研究报告摘要 90-91 (1993)。

高棹琢馬: "渇水時貯水池操作における予測情報の精度と意思決定基準の精度との相互関係分析モデルの構築" 土木学会関西支部平成6年度年次学術講演会. (1994)

Takuma Takamasa：“干旱期间水库运行预测信息准确性和决策标准准确性之间的相关分析模型的构建”1994年学术会议，日本土木工程学会关西分会（1994年）。

Takasao, T.: "Analyzes of the relation between accuracy of prediction and that of decision criteria in drought control" Proc.of annual Conf.of kasaibranch, JSCE. (1994)

Takasao, T.：“干旱控制中预测准确性与决策标准之间关系的分析”Proc.of Annual Conf.of kasaibranch，JSCE。

高棹琢馬: "ファジイシステムに対するファジイDPを用いた渇水時貯水池操作" 水文・水資源学会1993年研究発表会要旨集. 90-91 (1994)

Takuma Takamasa：“使用模糊 DP 进行模糊系统的干旱水库运行”日本水文水资源学会 1993 年研究报告摘要 90-91 (1994)。