Development of Real-Time Rainfall and Flood Discharge Forecasting Systems Using Digital Radar Data

利用数字雷达数据开发实时降雨和洪水预报系统

• 批准号: 61850096
• 负责人: TAKASAO Takuma
• 金额: $ 3.58万
• 依托单位: Kyoto University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Developmental Scientific Research
• 财政年份: 1986
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1986 至 1987
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-61850096/
• 关键词: Radar Raingauge; Rainfall Forecasting; Runoff Forecasting; Kalman Filter; 実時間予測; 流量予測

1) Characteristics of Storm Rainfall Observed by Using Radar Rainguauge;Ikebuchi and Takasao developed several colour graphic screens which can visually represent both the distribution of echo intensity and shape of three dimensionally spread precipitation field, in order to investigate how fine resolution the radar information has. They found that characteristics of the three dimensionally spread echo pattern were relatively well explained by the combination of the meteorological data from routine observation networks and the configulation of the ground. Introducing effects of temporal variability of radar data, Tomosugi proposed a method of identifying the best parametrs of Z-R relationship to improve the consistency between rainfalls estimated by radar and rain gauges.2) %techniques for Real-Time Forecasting of Rainfall and Flood Discharge;Using digital radar data, Shiiba devaloped a real-time reinfall forecasting procedure that can provide not only pararell translation orf rainfall … More distribution, but rotation, shearing strain and expansion of the rainfall distribution pattern. He also developed a real-time runoff fore- casting procedure based on a stochastic state-space runoff model coupled with a statistical second-order approximation technique and tghe UDU factorization technique. Takara and Takasao discussed how to treat the state and the noise terms in runoff forecasting using the Kalman filter theory. Kojiri developed a real-tiem runoff forecasting model in a large river basin (several square Kilometers in area).3) Applicability of Radar Information to Flood Management and Forecasting;Takasao and Takara tried come methods of identifying the best parameters of Z-R relationship by using raingauges in the catchment concerned, and estimating areal rainfalls on the basis of the parameters thus obtained in real time. Comparing the performances of runoff forecasting based on these areal rainfalls, they discussed the applicabiliityof radar information to flood management and forecasting. The investigators discussed the applicability of the methods which they developed abobe. Less

1)用雷达雨量计观测暴雨的特征池渊和高尾研制了几种彩色图形屏，可以直观地显示回波强度的分布和三维扩展降水场的形状，以考察雷达信息的分辨率有多高。他们发现，结合常规观测网的气象数据和地面模拟，可以较好地解释三维扩展回波模式的特征。Tomosugi提出了一种确定Z-R关系最佳参数的方法，以提高雷达资料与雨量计资料的一致性。2）降雨和洪水实时预报技术; Shiiba利用数字雷达资料开发了一种实时降水预报程序，不仅可以提供降水的并行转换， ...更多信息 降雨分布型的旋转、剪应变和扩展。他还开发了一个实时径流预报程序的基础上，随机状态空间径流模型与统计二阶近似技术和tghe UDU分解技术。Takara和Takasao讨论了如何利用卡尔曼滤波理论处理径流预报中的状态项和噪声项。3）雷达信息在洪水管理和预报中的应用Takasao和Takara尝试了几种方法，通过在有关流域使用雨量计来确定Z-R关系的最佳参数，并根据真实的时间获得的参数来估计区域降雨量。比较了基于这些面阵的径流预报性能，讨论了雷达信息在洪水管理和预报中的应用。研究者们讨论了他们在上面开发的方法的适用性。少

项目成果

T. Takasao: "Real-Time Calibration of Radar Rainfall for Flood Forecasting" Annuals, Disas. Prev. Res. Inst.,Kyoto University. no.31B-2. (1988)

T. Takasao：“用于洪水预报的雷达降雨量实时校准”年鉴，Disas。

宝 馨: 第31回水理講演会論文集,土木学会水理委員会. 113-118 (1987)

Kaoru Takara：第 31 届水利会议论文集，日本土木工程师学会水利委员会 113-118 (1987)。

高棹 琢馬: 京都大学防災研究所年報. 31-B-2. (1988)

Takuma Takasawa：京都大学防灾研究所年度报告31-B-2（1988）。

T.Takasao: "Modeling and Forecasting of Rounoff Processes in River Basins." Proc. of Fifth Congress of Asian and Pacific Regional Divison. IAHR.v. 113-149 (1986)

T.Takasao：“流域径流过程的建模和预测”。

Takasao,T.: Proc.Fifth Congress of Asian and Pacific Regional Division. IAHR. VOL.5. 113-149 (1986)

Takasao,T.：第五届亚洲及太平洋地区分部大会议程。