Marketing Approach for Understanding Demand Dyramics of A New Transport Service

本研究的目的是调查一种新型交通服务——“城市空中交通”的乘客特征，提出一种可以表征新型交通服务偏好结构的建模系统，并为市场动力学建模提供一种新的思路。本文分为以下两类。(1)新运输服务的需求结构研究不同的模型，如lit分析，在预测近期需求方面有很大的优势。但是，由于市场体量巨大，预测份额较小，份额模型的预测精度有时会低于客运量。市场细分或新的建模概念将被要求了解需求结构。这里采用了一种不同的方法来处理这样的问题和营销效果。利用LISREL模型和修正的DOGIT模型对大城市机场的直升机乘客数据进行了调查。结果表明，对飞行者的圈养是由价值观念、信息量、服务水平和每个旅行者的特点所形成的。已经进行了进一步的研究。用概率判别模型对重复器和试验支架进行分类。(2)新运输服务的扩散过程研究简要总结了日本新运输服务开通后的客运需求趋势。基于扩散建模概念进行了仿真分析，得到了需求动态机制的一些信息。乘客被分为三个细分市场：创新者、模仿者和重复者。从实际的乘客趋势和模拟结果来看，我们建议在这些服务上的商业和推广力度也是关键项目。最后，这些分析可以提供具有市场意识的方法对于新系统规划的决策和管理是必不可少的。

The purpose of this study is to investigate characteristics of passengers of a new servce - helicommuter called "city air link", to propose a modelling system which could represent preference structure for a new transport service, and to provide a new idea in modellng market dynamics. The paper is dividedinto the following two kinds.(1) A study on demand structure for a new transport serviceDisagregae modelling such as lgit analysis has much advantages in predicting near future demand. But, the prediction accuracy from share model is sometime below the volume of passengers because of hugenesof market volume and smallness of the predicted share. Market segmentation or new modelling concept will be requested for understanding the demand structure. Here a different approach was applied to cpe with such a problem and with marketng effects. LISREL modelling and modified DOGIT model were utilized after investigation of heli passengers data collected in metropolitan airports. The results indcate that the captivity for helicommuter has been formed by a sense of values, information amounts, level of service, and characteristics of each trip maker. Further studes have been conducted. The repeater and trial bracket were classified by robabilistic discriminant modelling.(2) A study n diffusion process for a new transport serviceThe recent trends of passenger deand after the provision of new transports in Japan Were summarized briefly. Simulation analysis based on diffusion modelling concept was conducted to obtain some information on the mechanism of demand dynamics. The passenger was dvided into three market segmentatins : innovator, imitator and repeater. We suggested that commercial and promotional efforts in thse services were also key items, judging from actual trend of passengers and the result of simulation. Finally, these analyzes could provide that the approach with marketing sense is essential for decision making and managing of a new system planning.