Marketing Approach for Understanding Demand Dyramics of A New Transport Service

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The purpose of this study is to investigate characteristics of passengers of a new servce - helicommuter called "city air link", to propose a modelling system which could represent preference structure for a new transport service, and to provide a new idea in modellng market dynamics. The paper is dividedinto the following two kinds.(1) A study on demand structure for a new transport serviceDisagregae modelling such as lgit analysis has much advantages in predicting near future demand. But, the prediction accuracy from share model is sometime below the volume of passengers because of hugenesof market volume and smallness of the predicted share. Market segmentation or new modelling concept will be requested for understanding the demand structure. Here a different approach was applied to cpe with such a problem and with marketng effects. LISREL modelling and modified DOGIT model were utilized after investigation of heli passengers data collected in metropolitan airports. The results indcate that the captivity for helicommuter has been formed by a sense of values, information amounts, level of service, and characteristics of each trip maker. Further studes have been conducted. The repeater and trial bracket were classified by robabilistic discriminant modelling.(2) A study n diffusion process for a new transport serviceThe recent trends of passenger deand after the provision of new transports in Japan Were summarized briefly. Simulation analysis based on diffusion modelling concept was conducted to obtain some information on the mechanism of demand dynamics. The passenger was dvided into three market segmentatins : innovator, imitator and repeater. We suggested that commercial and promotional efforts in thse services were also key items, judging from actual trend of passengers and the result of simulation. Finally, these analyzes could provide that the approach with marketing sense is essential for decision making and managing of a new system planning.