An Inter-regional Trade Model based on I/O and Price Equilibrium Framework

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This model seems to be useful in predicting inter-regional freight demands in conditions of open and short-term equilibrium, that is to say, 1) the final demand is given by another econometric model exogenously and 2) there is no change in industrial and residential location. The traditional simple models of transportation demand and land use for casting originated by analogy from results of other research fields. The most recent models have undergone improvements which combine behavioral analysis and the equilibrium theory. It is certain that practical interregional freight demand forecasting models must be trace such a path. In this sense, the present model may come to mark the first step in this direction. This model, however, can only provide tentative theoretical and practical conclusions. From a theoretical aspect, we must make it consistent with the economic theory on the behavior of firm and general equilibrium analysis in great detail. From a practical aspect, it is necessary to raise the reliability of our model by improving the database system and individual partial models. And finally, we have to carry out the feasibility analysis for the intercity highway construction projects which may change patterns of inter-regional freight flow on a great scale as far as we evaluate its availability.