New Analytical Approach on Travel Behavior and Transportation Network in the Next Generation of Intelligent Transport Systems

下一代智能交通系统中出行行为和交通网络的新分析方法

• 批准号: 13650588
• 负责人: MIZOKAMI Shoshi
• 金额: $ 2.56万
• 依托单位: Kumamoto University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2001 至 2002
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-13650588/
• 关键词: Sightseeing Travel Demand; Economic Impacts; Environmental Amenity; Travel Excursion; Input-Output Analysis; Travel Cost Method; Contingency Value Method

In this study, we propose a normative mathematical model with which we forecast multiple route choice behavior equilibrium flow pattern with endogenous demand of ATIS (Advanced Transportation Information System) users. This model is basically based on the multiple user network equilibrium model provided by Yang (1998), but we can formulate the other equivalent optimization-programming problem using an alternative and appropriate definition on ATIS users demand modeling. By using this model, we can measure the social benefit that is consistent with the demand-modeling framework. Furthermore, we obtain a very interesting paradox that the ATIS information might not always produce social efficiency to the transportation. Furthermore, we find the useful results that total cost of the system is sometimes lower in the case when the ATIS information cost is charged to drivers than in the case when the ATIS information cost is free of charge.On the other hand, this study proposed the introducto … More ry effect of advanced traveler information systems using two methods, WTP and [MSUE/ATIS] model. First, we performed the citizen perception survey to the introductory effect of VICS-unit. We evaluated the value of ATIS by WTP survey, and estimated the benefit. Furthermore, the unknown parameter of [MSUE/ATIS] model was estimated using WTP model. Finally, [MSUE/ATIS] model was applied to Kumamoto Urban Area and Seien Urban Area in order to estimate the benefit. We found that the introductory of ATIS in the area, where traffic congestion is heavy and travel cost is large, is effective.Finally, this paper proposes a method of inverse-estimating the unknown parameters of the composition model, which composed of integrated network equilibrium model using observed traffic. A bi-level optimization problem is built in order to apply the method to the [MUSE/VICS-Demand] model. It is proved that the proposed method can be used by means of numerical simulations using a model network. Moreover, it is also proved that a bi-level optimization problem can be efficiently calculated by nonlinear sensitivity analysis. The following results about the estimation of the unknown parameters are found: (1) there is an effective setting method for a set of observed links; (2) it is possible to improve precision of estimate by making the observation error small. Less

在本研究中，我们提出了一个规范的数学模型，用来预测具有内生需求的ATIS(Advanced Transportation Information System)用户的多路径选择行为均衡流模式。该模型基本上是基于Yang(1998)提出的多用户网络均衡模型，但我们可以在ATIS用户需求建模上用另一种合适的定义来描述另一个等价的优化规划问题。通过使用该模型，我们可以衡量与需求建模框架一致的社会效益。此外，我们还得到了一个非常有趣的悖论，即ATIS信息并不总是对交通产生社会效益。此外，我们还发现，在向司机收取ATIS信息成本的情况下，系统的总成本有时比在ATIS信息成本免费的情况下要低使用WTP和[MSUE/ATIS]模型两种方法对先进的出行信息系统进行了更好的效果。首先，我们对VICS单元的引入效果进行了公民感知调查。通过WTP调查对ATIS的价值进行评估，并对其效益进行估算。利用WTP模型对[MSUE/ATIS]模型的未知参数进行了估计。最后，将[MSUE/ATIS]模型应用于熊本市区和Seien市区进行效益估算。研究发现，ATIS在交通拥堵严重、出行成本大的地区的引入是有效的。最后，本文提出了一种基于观测交通流量的综合网络均衡模型组成的组合模型未知参数的逆估计方法。为了将该方法应用于[MUSE/VICS-DEMAND]模型，建立了一个双层优化问题。通过模型网络的数值模拟，证明了该方法是可行的。此外，还证明了通过非线性灵敏度分析可以有效地求解双层优化问题。对未知参数的估计有如下结果：(1)对一组观测环节有一种有效的设置方法；(2)可以通过减小观测误差来提高估计精度。较少

项目成果

溝上章志, 竹隈史明: "パーク・アンド・ライドとロードプライシングによるTDMパッケージ施策の評価手法"都市計画論文集. No.37. 247-254 (2002)

Akira Mizokami、Fumiaki Takekuma：“使用停车换乘和道路定价的 TDM 方案的评估方法”城市规划论文第 37 号。247-254 (2002)。

S. MIZOKAMI & F. TAKEKUMA: "An Economic Evaluation Method for TDM Package Policies: A Case of P&R and Road Pricing"Journal of the City Planning Institute in Japan. No. 37. 247-254 (2002)

S·沟上

溝上章志, 本田秀太: "多種流確率均衡配分理論を用いたVICS情報の利用率予測と効果計測の方法"土木学会論文集. No.70/IV-56. 105-115 (2002)

Akira Mizokami，Shuta Honda：“使用多物种概率平衡分配理论预测利用率和测量 VICS 信息有效性的方法”日本土木工程师学会交易第 70/IV-56 号（2002 年）。

溝上章志, 本田秀太: "インターモーダリティを考慮した交通情報提供の効果"土木計画学研究講演集. No.24(CD-ROM-No.53). (2001)

Akira Mizokami，Shuta Honda：“考虑多式联运提供交通信息的效果”土木工程规划研究讲座集第 24 号（CD-ROM-No. 53）。

Ryuji KAKIMOTO, Shoshi MIZOKAMI: "A Transportation Choice Model with Serial Correlation and State Dependency"Selected Proceedings of International Conference on Traffic and Transportation Systems. No.3. 373-380 (2002)

Ryuji KAKIMOTO、Shoshi Mizokami：“具有序列相关性和状态依赖性的交通选择模型”国际交通运输系统会议论文集。