New Analytical Approach on Travel Behavior and Transportation Network in the Next Generation of Intelligent Transport Systems

在本研究中，我们提出了一个规范的数学模型来预测先进交通信息系统（ATIS）用户的多路径选择行为均衡流模式。该模型基本上是基于Yang（1998）提供的多用户网络均衡模型，但我们可以使用ATIS用户需求建模的另一种合适的定义来表述另一个等效的优化规划问题。通过使用该模型，我们可以衡量与需求模型框架相一致的社会效益。此外，我们得到了一个非常有趣的悖论，即交通运输信息可能并不总是产生社会效率。此外，我们发现了有用的结果，即在向驾驶员收取ATIS信息成本的情况下，系统的总成本有时低于免费收取ATIS信息成本的情况。另一方面，本研究采用WTP和[MSUE/ATIS]模型两种方法对先进的出行者信息系统的效果进行了介绍。首先，我们对vics单元的引入效果进行了市民感知调查。我们通过WTP调查来评估ATIS的价值，并估计其效益。利用WTP模型对[MSUE/ATIS]模型的未知参数进行估计。最后，将[MSUE/ATIS]模型应用于熊本市区和西安市区进行效益评估。我们发现，在交通拥堵严重、出行成本高的地区引入ATIS是有效的。最后，提出了一种利用实测流量对综合网络均衡模型组成的组合模型的未知参数进行反估计的方法。为了将该方法应用于[MUSE/VICS-Demand]模型，构建了一个双层优化问题。通过模型网络的数值模拟，证明了该方法的有效性。此外，还证明了用非线性灵敏度分析方法可以有效地求解双层优化问题。对未知参数的估计得到如下结果：(1)对一组观测环节存在有效的整定方法；(2)减小观测误差可以提高估计精度。少

In this study, we propose a normative mathematical model with which we forecast multiple route choice behavior equilibrium flow pattern with endogenous demand of ATIS (Advanced Transportation Information System) users. This model is basically based on the multiple user network equilibrium model provided by Yang (1998), but we can formulate the other equivalent optimization-programming problem using an alternative and appropriate definition on ATIS users demand modeling. By using this model, we can measure the social benefit that is consistent with the demand-modeling framework. Furthermore, we obtain a very interesting paradox that the ATIS information might not always produce social efficiency to the transportation. Furthermore, we find the useful results that total cost of the system is sometimes lower in the case when the ATIS information cost is charged to drivers than in the case when the ATIS information cost is free of charge.On the other hand, this study proposed the introducto … More ry effect of advanced traveler information systems using two methods, WTP and [MSUE/ATIS] model. First, we performed the citizen perception survey to the introductory effect of VICS-unit. We evaluated the value of ATIS by WTP survey, and estimated the benefit. Furthermore, the unknown parameter of [MSUE/ATIS] model was estimated using WTP model. Finally, [MSUE/ATIS] model was applied to Kumamoto Urban Area and Seien Urban Area in order to estimate the benefit. We found that the introductory of ATIS in the area, where traffic congestion is heavy and travel cost is large, is effective.Finally, this paper proposes a method of inverse-estimating the unknown parameters of the composition model, which composed of integrated network equilibrium model using observed traffic. A bi-level optimization problem is built in order to apply the method to the [MUSE/VICS-Demand] model. It is proved that the proposed method can be used by means of numerical simulations using a model network. Moreover, it is also proved that a bi-level optimization problem can be efficiently calculated by nonlinear sensitivity analysis. The following results about the estimation of the unknown parameters are found: (1) there is an effective setting method for a set of observed links; (2) it is possible to improve precision of estimate by making the observation error small. Less