Indirect and direct anthropogenic drivers: population increase, land management and conservation

间接和直接人为驱动因素：人口增长、土地管理和保护

• 批准号: 443722128
• 负责人: Privatdozent Dr. Andreas Hemp, Ph.D.
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Plant Ecology
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Units
• 资助国家: 德国
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/443722128?language=en
• 关键词: Indirect; direct; anthropogenic; drivers; population

In social-ecological systems (SES), biodiversity, Nature’s contribution to people (NCP) and human well-being are not only influenced by institutions and governance but also by further indirect drivers, including population growth and economic development. Together, these factors determine the direct anthropogenic drivers that affect biodiversity, in particular land use and land management, climate change, the exploitation of natural resources and the spread of invasive species. In this project we will investigate the impact of these drivers in the Kilimanjaro SES. The focus will be placed on plant diversity, since vegetation is strongly related to the diversity of other taxa, and plays a fundamental role for the functioning of ecosystems, and hence NCP. Furthermore, a rich data set of 1600 vegetation plots together with the 65 KiLi 1 plots is available for this task.First, we will study the spatial and temporal relationship between population and economic development (as indirect drivers) and land-use (as direct driver), relating changes of population density and per-capita and total income (together with SP4 and SP5) to changes in land-use and vegetation cover. Furthermore, we will convert these land cover changes to estimated biodiversity changes using indicators (collaborating with SP7). We will determine the proportion of exotic and invasive species (as another direct driver) on the 65+1600 plots and relate it to the same indicators. To assess the long-term impact of the direct driver climate change on biodiversity we will repeat vegetation surveys and forest inventories and extend our climatic and dendrometrical measurements. In addition to gathering data on change in biodiversity components, the resulting data on biomass, dead wood and fog interception will be used to derive measures on NCP supply in SP1 and SP2. Second, we aim to upscale the indicators from the 65 + 1600 plots to the whole mountain (together with SP7). This will enable us to analyse changes of diversity and related NCP for an entire tropical mountain ecosystem. Third, as a potential positive driver mitigating the negative effects of the other drivers, we aim to assess the conservation value of the National Park, by repeating the aerial survey of 2001 and to compare the situation of the Park between the two surveys. This topic addresses also one of the high priority tasks of Kilimanjaro National Park authority and would be the first repetition of an aerial survey of one of the largest forest blocks in East Africa. Furthermore, some of the results will contribute to quantifying the supply of regulating NCP such as landslip and fire risk important for SP1.In conclusion, this project will analyse the major drivers affecting different components of biodiversity using a unique dataset for upscaling for a suite of understudied tropical systems along elevational and land-use gradients. Moreover, it will provide important information for all other SPs of KiLi-SES.

在社会生态系统中，生物多样性、自然对人类的贡献和人类福祉不仅受到制度和治理的影响，而且还受到人口增长和经济发展等其他间接驱动因素的影响。这些因素共同决定了影响生物多样性的直接人为驱动因素，特别是土地利用和土地管理、气候变化、自然资源开发和入侵物种的扩散。在这个项目中，我们将调查这些司机在基利曼哈罗SES的影响。重点将放在植物多样性上，因为植被与其他分类群的多样性密切相关，并对生态系统的功能起着根本作用，因此也是NCP。此外，我们还拥有1600个植被样地和65个KiLi 1样地的丰富数据集。首先，我们将研究人口与经济发展之间的时空关系（作为间接驱动因素）和土地使用（作为直接驱动器），将人口密度、人均收入和总收入的变化（连同次级方案4和次级方案5）与土地使用和植被覆盖的变化联系起来。此外，我们将使用指标（与SP 7合作）将这些土地覆盖变化转化为估计的生物多样性变化。我们将确定65+1600地块上外来物种和入侵物种的比例（作为另一个直接驱动因素），并将其与相同的指标相关联。为了评估直接驱动气候变化对生物多样性的长期影响，我们将重复植被调查和森林清查，并扩大我们的气候和树木测量。除了收集关于生物多样性组成部分变化的数据外，还将利用由此产生的关于生物量、枯木和雾截留的数据来得出关于次级方案1和次级方案2中的净初级产品供应的衡量标准。其次，我们的目标是将65 + 1600地块的指标提升到整个山区（与SP 7一起）。这将使我们能够分析整个热带山区生态系统的多样性和相关的NCP的变化。第三，作为一个潜在的积极驱动因素，减轻其他驱动因素的负面影响，我们的目标是评估的保护价值的国家公园，通过重复的航空调查2001年和比较的情况下，公园之间的两次调查。这一专题也涉及基利曼哈罗国家公园管理局的高度优先任务之一，将是对东非最大的森林区块之一的首次重复航空勘测。此外，一些结果将有助于量化的供应调节NCP，如滑坡和火灾风险的重要SP1。总之，该项目将分析影响生物多样性的不同组成部分的主要驱动因素，使用一个独特的数据集，一套欠研究的热带系统沿着海拔和土地利用梯度的升级。此外，它还将为KiLi-SES的所有其他SP提供重要信息。