Development of stochastic model for the Japanese Islands by combining crust deformation and seismic events

结合地壳变形和地震事件开发日本列岛随机模型

• 批准号: 16201038
• 负责人: HORI Muneo
• 金额: $ 13.89万
• 依托单位: The University of Tokyo
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2004 至 2007
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-16201038/
• 关键词: stochastic model; crust deformation; seismic activity; GPS data; large-scale computation; Monte-Carlo simulation; crust deformation monitor; 地震データ; 逆解析; カルマンフィルタ; GPS; 破壊解析; 数値計算; 不確定性; 地震

Background of research: The estimation of three-dimensional distribution of stress in the crust of the Japanese Islands is essential for earthquake hazard and disaster prediction, since an earthquake is triggered by crust stress. However, it is impossible to measure stress as deep as 10 kilometer below the ground. An alternative is the construction of a stochastic model which accounts for the uncertainty of the stress distribution by using a probabilistic distribution function; the function is defined by using limited measurement for the curst deformation and the seismic activities. A set of admissible stochastic models are found by integrating data which will be accumulated through measurement of the crust deformation and the seismic activities.Objective of research: The primary of objective of this research is the construction of a stochastic model for the stress distribution which is stored in the crust of the Japanese Island. Aset of admissible models are found by reproducing data … More for the curst deformation that is measured by GPS and for the seismic activities which are measured by seismograph network. This set will provide a certain model which is able to make prediction for future events. Anew analysis method for the stochastic model is developed, so that numerical computation that is required for the analysis is minimized.Methodology of research: First, a physical model which has the configuration that matches the actual plates is constructed. A stochastic model is constructed by using limited information for stress which are expressed in terms of a probabilistic function. Arational method for constructing the stochastic model based on the physical model is studied. A set of admissible models are determined by means of the Monte-Carlo simulation which uses large-scale computation, and a most suitable model is chosen so that it will be a prototype which produces prediction of crust deformation and seismic activities.Major results: A physical model is constructed for the crust of the Japanese Islands, and this model is of highest spatial resolution so that it is analyzed only by a large-scale parallel computation. This physical model is extended to a stochastic model in which three-dimensional distribution of stress in the crust is given as a probabilistic function. An analysis method that uses a new discretization scheme for functions is developed, so that the probabilistic behavior of the stochastic model is efficiently analyzed. The data which are measured for the crust deformation and the seismic activities are used in analyzing the stochastic model. The potential usefulness of analyzing this stochastic model with large-scale numerical computation is studied. Less

研究背景：由于地震是由地壳应力触发的，因此估算日本列岛地壳中的三维应力分布对于地震危险性和灾害预测至关重要。然而，测量地下10公里深处的应力是不可能的。另一种方法是建立一个随机模型，该模型通过使用概率分布函数来解释应力分布的不确定性;该函数通过使用有限的地壳变形和地震活动测量来定义。通过对地壳形变和地震活动的观测，建立了一套可接受的随机模型。研究目的：建立日本列岛地壳应力分布的随机模型是本研究的主要目的。通过再生数据，找到了一组容许模型 ...更多信息 GPS测量的地壳形变和地震台网测量的地震活动性。这个集合将提供一个能够对未来事件进行预测的特定模型。一种新的分析方法的随机模型，使所需的分析的数值计算是minimized.Methodology的研究：首先，一个物理模型，具有匹配的配置，实际板构造。利用有限的应力信息建立了一个随机模型，应力信息用概率函数表示。研究了在物理模型基础上构造随机模型的合理方法。利用大规模计算的蒙特-卡罗模拟方法，确定了一组可接受的模型，并从中选出最合适的模型，使之成为预测地壳形变和地震活动的原型。建立了日本列岛地壳的物理模型，并且该模型具有最高的空间分辨率，使得仅通过大规模并行计算来分析该模型。将该物理模型推广到一个随机模型，在该模型中，地壳中的三维应力分布作为概率函数给出。提出了一种新的函数离散化方法，有效地分析了随机模型的概率行为。利用实测的地壳形变和地震活动资料对随机模型进行了分析。分析这种随机模型与大规模数值计算的潜在有用性进行了研究。少

项目成果

Stress field tomography based on 3D photoelasticity

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmps.2007.06.004
• 发表时间: 2008-03
• 期刊: Journal of The Mechanics and Physics of Solids
• 影响因子: 5.3
• 作者: M. Wijerathne;K. Oguni;M. Hori

Structural seismic response analysis based on multiscale approach of computing fault–structure system

• DOI: 10.1002/eqe.861
• 发表时间: 2009-04
• 期刊: Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.5
• 作者: T. Ichimura;M. Hori

Distributed object-based software environment for urban system integrated simulation under urban-scale hazard - Part II : Application

城市规模灾害下城市系统综合模拟的基于分布式对象的软件环境 - 第二部分：应用

• 发表时间: 2007
• 期刊: Earthquake Engng Struct. Dyn. 36
• 作者: M. H. Serror;J. Inoue;M. Hori;Y. Fujino;T. Ichimura
• 通讯作者: T. Ichimura

Development of immediate evaluation method for earthquake safety of existing dams

现有大坝地震安全即时评价方法的开发

• 发表时间: 2006
• 作者: Y. Ariga;Y. Fujinawa;M. Hori
• 通讯作者: M. Hori

Development of affordable GPS displacement monitoring system

开发经济实惠的GPS位移监测系统

• 发表时间: 2008
• 作者: M. Saeki;K. Oguni;M. Hori
• 通讯作者: M. Hori