Development of stochastic model for the Japanese Islands by combining crust deformation and seismic events

结合地壳变形和地震事件开发日本列岛随机模型

• 批准号: 16201038
• 负责人: HORI Muneo
• 金额: $ 13.89万
• 依托单位: The University of Tokyo
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2004 至 2007
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-16201038/
• 关键词: stochastic model; crust deformation; seismic activity; GPS data; large-scale computation; Monte-Carlo simulation; crust deformation monitor; 地震データ; 逆解析; カルマンフィルタ; GPS; 破壊解析; 数値計算; 不確定性; 地震

Background of research: The estimation of three-dimensional distribution of stress in the crust of the Japanese Islands is essential for earthquake hazard and disaster prediction, since an earthquake is triggered by crust stress. However, it is impossible to measure stress as deep as 10 kilometer below the ground. An alternative is the construction of a stochastic model which accounts for the uncertainty of the stress distribution by using a probabilistic distribution function; the function is defined by using limited measurement for the curst deformation and the seismic activities. A set of admissible stochastic models are found by integrating data which will be accumulated through measurement of the crust deformation and the seismic activities.Objective of research: The primary of objective of this research is the construction of a stochastic model for the stress distribution which is stored in the crust of the Japanese Island. Aset of admissible models are found by reproducing data … More for the curst deformation that is measured by GPS and for the seismic activities which are measured by seismograph network. This set will provide a certain model which is able to make prediction for future events. Anew analysis method for the stochastic model is developed, so that numerical computation that is required for the analysis is minimized.Methodology of research: First, a physical model which has the configuration that matches the actual plates is constructed. A stochastic model is constructed by using limited information for stress which are expressed in terms of a probabilistic function. Arational method for constructing the stochastic model based on the physical model is studied. A set of admissible models are determined by means of the Monte-Carlo simulation which uses large-scale computation, and a most suitable model is chosen so that it will be a prototype which produces prediction of crust deformation and seismic activities.Major results: A physical model is constructed for the crust of the Japanese Islands, and this model is of highest spatial resolution so that it is analyzed only by a large-scale parallel computation. This physical model is extended to a stochastic model in which three-dimensional distribution of stress in the crust is given as a probabilistic function. An analysis method that uses a new discretization scheme for functions is developed, so that the probabilistic behavior of the stochastic model is efficiently analyzed. The data which are measured for the crust deformation and the seismic activities are used in analyzing the stochastic model. The potential usefulness of analyzing this stochastic model with large-scale numerical computation is studied. Less

研究背景：日本群岛外壳中应力的三维分布的估计对于地震危害和灾难预测至关重要，因为地震是由地壳压力引发的。但是，不可能测量在地面以下10公里深处的应力。另一种选择是构建随机模型，该模型通过使用概率分布函数来解释应力分布的不确定性；该函数是通过使用有限的测量来定义的，用于弯曲变形和地震活性。通过整合数据，可以通过测量地壳变形和地震活动来积累一组可接受的随机模型。研究：这项研究的目标的主要是建立一个随机模型，以构建应力分布的随机模型，该模型存储在日本岛的地壳中。通过复制数据，可以找到可允许模型的资产……更多用于通过GPS和通过地震仪网络衡量的地震活动来衡量的curst变形。该集合将提供某种模型，该模型能够为将来的事件进行预测。开发了随机模型的新分析方法，因此将分析所需的数值计算最小化。通过使用有限的信息来构建随机模型的压力。通过使用大规模计算的蒙特卡罗模拟确定一组可接受的模型，并选择了最合适的模型，以便它是一种产生地壳变形和地震活动的预测的原型。物理模型是为日本岛屿的外壳而构建的，并且该模型是最高的，并且仅通过量为scatial Scatiation Syscation san Syscation Analy Sanement Analy Saneme san Analse s Analy Anal Anal Anal Analsiation Analsiation Analsiation Analsiation Analse san Anal Ane An A A SAMES进行了分析。该物理模型扩展到了随机模型，在该模型中，在该模型中，将外壳中的应力的三维分布作为概率函数给出。开发了一种使用新的离散化方案的分析方法，以便有效地分析了随机模型的概率行为。用于分析随机模型的地壳变形和地震活性的数据。用大规模数值计算分析此随机模型的潜在有用性是研究。较少的

项目成果

Distributed object-based software environment for urban system integrated simulation under urban-scale hazard - Part II : Application

城市规模灾害下城市系统综合模拟的基于分布式对象的软件环境 - 第二部分：应用

• 发表时间: 2007
• 期刊: Earthquake Engng Struct. Dyn. 36
• 作者: M. H. Serror;J. Inoue;M. Hori;Y. Fujino;T. Ichimura
• 通讯作者: T. Ichimura

Stress field tomography based on 3D photoelasticity

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmps.2007.06.004
• 发表时间: 2008-03
• 期刊: Journal of The Mechanics and Physics of Solids
• 影响因子: 5.3
• 作者: M. Wijerathne;K. Oguni;M. Hori

On analytic solution of uniaxial extension of elasto-plastic rectangular plate

• DOI: 10.1016/j.mechmat.2006.08.010
• 发表时间: 2007-08
• 期刊: Mechanics of Materials
• 影响因子: 3.9
• 作者: M. Hori;K. Oguni

Strong Ground Motion Prediction using Macro-Micro Analysis Method

利用宏微观分析方法进行强地震动预测

• 发表时间: 2006
• 期刊: Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics 35
• 作者: T. Ichimura;M. Hori
• 通讯作者: M. Hori

Particle discretization scheme and application to fracture problems

粒子离散方案及其在断裂问题中的应用

• 发表时间: 2007
• 作者: Sudaryanto;A.;Kajiwara;N.;Tsydenova;O.;Iwata;H.;Adibroto;T.A.;Yu;H.;Chung;K.;Subramanian;An.;Prudente;M.;Tana;T.S.;Tanabe;S;M. Hori
• 通讯作者: M. Hori