Development of numerical simulation method for prediction of surface earthquake fault behavior

地面地震断层行为预测数值模拟方法的发展

• 批准号: 12555125
• 负责人: HORI Muneo
• 金额: $ 8.32万
• 依托单位: The University of Tokyo
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2000 至 2002
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-12555125/
• 关键词: Active fault; Numerical simulation; Model experiment for faulting; Inverse analysis; 3D photoelasticity; Fault displacement; Crack propagation; Probability of faulting; ラドン変換; 応力分布推定

This research is aimed at developing a new numerical analysis method for prediction of fault behavior, based on model experiments which are to clarify the mechanism of rupture processes of faulting. New experiment techniques using CT scanner and 3D photoelasticity are developed ; the 3D photoelasticity uses new devices and data analysis method. It is shown in the model experiments that the governing mechanism of faulting is the bifurcation that leads to highly variable fault behaviors. Based on this observation, a new analysis method, called non-linear stochastic finite element method (NL-SSFEM) has been developed. This method analyzes the stochastic behavior of unconsolidated soil layers and find the most unstable bifurcated solution that corresponds to the actual faulting.The NL-SSFEM is tuned in applying geo-materials. The validity of the method is verified by reproducing several model experiments carried out by other researchers. For two-dimensional problem of normal or reverse faulting and for three-dimensional problem of lateral sliding, the NL-SSFEM is able to give fairly good evaluation of several parameters of fault configuration and loading. It should be emphasized the variability of these parameters is also well evaluated and that the NL-SSFEM is able to compute the probability of failure. Actual faulting is next studied. The targets are the Nojima Fault (coupled reverse and lateral faulting) and the Shirlongpong Fault (reverse faulting). Constructing a computer model for actual unconsolidated layers, the NL-SSFEM simulates the faulting, and the configuration of simulated faults is compared with observed ones. Good agreement supports the usefulness of the NL-SSFEM as a tool for predicting the fault behavior. The NL-SSFEM provides information about the faulting probability, as the amount of base movement that leads to the surface faulting. Although not verified, the values of the probability seems reasonable from the past data of faulting.

本研究的目的是发展一种新的数值分析方法来预测断层的行为，基于模型实验，以阐明断裂的破裂过程的机制。发展了CT扫描和三维光弹性实验新技术，三维光弹性实验采用了新的实验装置和数据分析方法。模型实验表明，断层的控制机制是分叉，导致高度可变的故障行为。在此基础上，发展了一种新的分析方法--非线性随机有限元法。该方法分析了松散土层的随机性态，找出了与实际断层运动相对应的最不稳定分叉解。该方法的有效性得到了验证，通过复制几个模型实验进行了其他研究人员。对于二维正断层或逆断层问题和三维侧向滑动问题，NL-SSFEM能够对断层形态和载荷的几个参数给出较好的评价。应该强调的是，这些参数的可变性也得到了很好的评价，并且NL-SSFEM能够计算失效概率。实际故障是下一步研究。目标是Nojima断层（耦合的逆断层和侧向断层）和Shirlongpong断层（逆断层）。建立了一个实际松散层的计算机模型，NL-SSFEM模拟断层，模拟断层的配置与观测进行了比较。良好的协议支持的NL-SSFEM作为预测故障行为的工具的有用性。NL-SSFEM提供了有关断层概率的信息，作为导致地表断层的基底运动量。虽然没有得到证实，但从过去的断层资料来看，概率值似乎是合理的。

项目成果

M.Hori: "Application of spectral decomposition of Green's function to linear inverse problem"Engineering Analysis with Boundary Elements(special issue on Inverse Problem and Optimization). (2003)

M.Hori：“格林函数谱分解在线性反问题中的应用”边界元工程分析（反问题和优化特刊）。

M.Hori, Y.Yamashita: "Proposal of health monitoring system using ACROSS technology"Structural Eng./Earthquake Eng., JSCE. 17. 37-46 (2000)

M.Hori、Y.Yamashita：“使用 ACROSS 技术的健康监测系统的提案”结构工程/地震工程，JSCE。

M.Hori, M.S.Anders, T.Mizutani: "Analysis of periodic shear band formation : model experiments and numerical simulation"Bifurcation and Localization Theory in Geomechanics. 311-319 (2001)

M.Hori、M.S.Anders、T.Mizutani：“周期性剪切带形成分析：模型实验和数值模拟”地质力学中的分岔和定位理论。

M.Hori, T.Kameda T.Kato: "Prediction of stress filed in Japan using GPS network data"Earth, Planets Space. 52. 1101-1105 (2000)

M.Hori、T.Kameda T.Kato：“使用 GPS 网络数据预测日本的压力”地球、行星空间。

M.Hori and T.Kameda: "Identification of stress from strain for body with not fully identified constitutive relations"in Proceedings of Field Analyses for Determination of Material Parameters-Experimental and Numerical Aspects- . 11-12 (2000)

M.Hori 和 T.Kameda：“确定材料参数测定现场分析记录 - 实验和数值方面 - 中未完全识别本构关系的物体应变应力的识别”。