Development and Application of Probabilistic Evaluation Method for Vulnerability of Interrelated Urban Infrastructure to Earthquake Disaster

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We proposed i) an evaluation technique for seismic risk considering simultaneous collapse of two or more buildings, and ii) a representation scheme for simultaneous occurrence of two or more kinds of natural disaster.First, a Bayesian updating technique is applied to a site-specific seismic hazard analysis. Macro-spatial correlation structure of ground motion intensities and correlation structure of spectral acceleration between different periods are proposed in order to consider a simultaneous collapse of two or more buildings. Seismic risk for a spatially-distributed and functionally-interconnected system was evaluated using these correlation characteristics.Secondly, a risk analysis scheme was proposed for simultaneously-occurred natural disasters. A stochastic model was proposed using a stochastic pulse process. A method for considering a progressive seismic damage by aftershocks was proposed using a Markov chain approach.