Residential house prices

住宅房价

• 批准号: 452321614
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Marcel Fischer
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Lehrstuhl für Finanzwirtschaft
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2019-12-31 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/452321614?language=en
• 关键词: Residential; house; prices

In this application, my research team and I propose two projects that investigate determinants of prices of individual residential homes. Both projects make use of an exclusive database that covers transactions from the entire US over more than two decades. The first project starts out with the preliminary observation that over the last two decades, owner-occupiers consistently realized the lowest average annualized returns when selling their homes. In contrast, short-term oriented institutional investors consistently outperform the other groups. This project aims to identify the underlying reasons of these patterns by investigating drivers such as location, timing, and risk-profiles of different investor groups. To do so, we make use of repeat sales and information about associated mortgages, as well as publicly available time-series on local economic conditions such as income and unemployment. We further plan to use time-series such as mortgage rates to investigate investor sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. In contrast to prior work that focuses on few, larger metropolitan areas and particular groups of investors only, this project is the first to provide a representative, multi-dimensional analysis of the performance of a broad spectrum of investor groups. The results of this project therefore have the potential to provide valuable insights for both policy makers and investors.In the second project, my research team and I want to investigate an effect of property taxation on trading prices that has so far been neglected in the literature. Real estate is usually taxed according to value, such that owners of higher-valued homes have to pay higher taxes. As each home is infrequently traded and unique, however, the determination of such estimated market values (EMVs) is difficult and errors are likely. We argue that this gives rise to two counteracting channels through which EMVs should influence trading prices. On the one hand, the EMV of a home can serve as an anchor for buyers and sellers, implying a positive effect. On the other hand, a high EMV results in higher tax payments, which should in turn affect a home’s value in negative fashion. To address this opposing relationship, we propose a novel identification strategy exploiting characteristics of New York State’s property tax legislation, enabling us to employ a Differences-in-Differences approach. Whereas prior literature investigated the effects on home values through changes in the tax rate, the purpose of this project is to investigate whether the tax base (in this case the EMV) also affects trading prices. The project has implications for all countries with a property tax system that relies on estimated base values, and is thus relevant for Germany, which only recently passed new laws on the according-to-value taxation of real estate.

在这个申请中，我和我的研究团队提出了两个项目，调查个人住宅价格的决定因素。这两个项目都使用了一个独家数据库，该数据库涵盖了整个美国20多年来的交易。第一个项目从初步观察开始，在过去20年里，业主自住者在出售房屋时始终实现了最低的平均年化回报率。相比之下，以短期为导向的机构投资者的表现一直好于其他群体。该项目旨在通过调查不同投资者群体的地点、时机和风险概况等驱动因素，找出这些模式的潜在原因。为了做到这一点，我们利用重复销售和有关相关抵押贷款的信息，以及有关当地经济状况(如收入和失业)的公开时间序列。我们还计划使用抵押贷款利率等时间序列来调查投资者对宏观经济因素的敏感性。与以前只关注少数较大的大都市地区和特定投资者群体的工作不同，该项目是第一个对广泛的投资者群体的业绩进行具有代表性的多维分析的项目。因此，这个项目的结果有可能为政策制定者和投资者提供有价值的见解。在第二个项目中，我和我的研究团队想要调查物业税对交易价格的影响，这是到目前为止在文献中被忽视的。房地产通常是根据价值征税的，因此价值较高的房屋的所有者必须支付更高的税款。然而，由于每套房屋都不经常交易，而且是独一无二的，因此很难确定这样的估计市场价值(EMVS)，而且可能会出现错误。我们认为，这导致了两个相互抵消的渠道，通过这两个渠道，有效市场价值应该会影响交易价格。一方面，房屋的EMV可以作为买家和卖家的锚，意味着积极的效果。另一方面，高EMV会导致更高的纳税，这反过来会对房屋的价值产生负面影响。为了解决这种对立的关系，我们提出了一种新的识别策略，利用纽约州物业税立法的特点，使我们能够采用差异中的方法。虽然先前的文献调查了税率变化对房屋价值的影响，但本项目的目的是调查税基(在这种情况下是EMV)是否也影响交易价格。该项目对所有拥有依赖估计基值的财产税制度的国家都有影响，因此与德国相关，德国最近才通过了关于房地产按价值征税的新法律。