Commuter Demand Concentration Model and the Application on Tokyo Railway Network

在城市地区，铁路运力的发展和需求的分散被认为可以缓解高峰时段的拥堵。为了评估这些措施的效果，网络分配模型的基础上的时间-空间网络，称为通勤需求集中模型。该模型以OD表、铁路运力数据和工作时间系统信息为输入，给出每个时间、每个区域的拥堵程度。然后，该模型被应用到东京的铁路网络，结果表明，它可以估计通勤需求随着时间的推移，具有合理的精度。最后，我们可以预测东京未来的铁路需求，考虑到工作系统和铁路能力的可能变化。

In the urban area, development of railway capacity and dispersion of demand are thought to relieve congestion in peak time. In order to evaluate the effects of these measures, a network assignment model based on a time-space network is developed, called the Commuter Demand Concentration Model. Utilizing OD tables, railway capacity data, and information of working time system as input, this model gives congestion levels at each time and at each zone. Then, this model is applied to Tokyo's railway network, and it turned out that it can estimate commuter demand over time with reasonable accuracy. Finally, we can make a forecast for Tokyo's railway demand in the future, considering possible changes in the working system and railway capacity.