Commuter Demand Concentration Model Based on a Time-Space Network Scheme

在东京地区，还需要发展铁路运力和分散需求来缓解高峰时段的拥堵。为了评估这些措施的效果，本研究估计了一个模型，该模型使用OD表，铁路运力作为输入数据，并给出了在每个时间和每个区域的上车，下车和通过人数。为了缩短计算时间，该模型对复杂的东京铁路网进行了简化，并在简化铁路网的基础上对输入数据、OD表和铁路运力数据进行了修改。为了表达通勤者的出行时间选择，网络链路成本函数考虑了拥堵率（以应用“流量依赖分配”）和工作系统。因此，该模型为我们提供了每个区域相对于时间的高精度需求。最后，利用该模型，我们可以对未来的铁路需求进行预测，考虑到工作系统和铁路运力可能发生的变化。

In the Tokyo area, development of railway capacity and dispersion of demand are also needed to relieve congestion in peak time. In order to evaluate the effects of these measures, this study estimates a model which uses OD tables, railway capacity as input data and gives boarding, alighting and passing number person, at each time and at each zone as result.In order to shorten calculation time, this model simplified the complicated Tokyo railway network, and modified input data, OD tables and railway capacity data, based on a simplified railway network. To express commuters' travel time selection, network link cost functions considered congestion rate (in order to apply 'flow dependent assignment') and working system.As a result, this model gives us the demand at each zone with respect to time with high accuracy. Finally, using this model, we can make a forecast for the railway demand in the future, considering possible changes in the working system and railway capacity.