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Development of Integrated Forecasting System of Trade and Traffic Flow and Policy Evaluation for International Transport Infrastructure in the era of Economic Integration in Asia

亚洲经济一体化时代贸易交通流量综合预测系统开发及国际交通基础设施政策评估

基本信息

批准号：
17310092
负责人：
IEDA Hitoshi
金额：
$ 10.3万
依托单位：
The University of Tokyo
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2005
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2005 至 2007
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Our research results are as follows;1) Multi-regional International Input-Output Table was developed, especially focusing in Japan and China.2) By incorporating the developed I-O Table in 1) into existing trade forecasting model (i.e. GTAP model), impacts of various international economic and transport polices such as FTA and infrastructure investment on each Japanese and Chinese region were measured.3) Commodities were classified based on each commodity's characteristics on unit price of cargo and share by transport mode.4) International maritime cargo flow model was developed.5) Possibility of international RORO ship transport in East Asia was analyzed.6) International passenger flow model was developed.7) By extending and applying the model developed in 4), international transport policy simulations were examined for China and Mekong River Area.Throughout this series of researches such as model development for trade forecasting and international freight flow, integration of these models, and policy simulation and analyses, the integrated system to measure impacts quantitatively of international economic policies such as FTA and international transport policies such as infrastructure investment on trade and transport flow pattern for each country in East Asia including Japan.

我们的研究结果如下：1)建立了多区域的国际投入产出表，并以日本和中国为重点。2)将1)中建立的I-O表纳入现有的贸易预测模型（即GTAP模型），衡量了自由贸易协定和基础设施投资等各种国际经济和运输政策对日本和中国各地区的影响。(3)按货物单价和运输方式按各商品的特点进行分类。4)建立了国际海上货物流模型。5)分析了东亚地区国际滚装船舶运输的可能性。6)建立了国际客流模型。7)通过扩展和应用4)的模型，对中国和湄公河地区的国际交通政策进行了模拟。通过对贸易预测和国际货流模型的开发、模型的整合、政策的模拟与分析等一系列研究，定量测量了自由贸易协定等国际经济政策和国际运输政策（如基础设施投资）对包括日本在内的东亚各国贸易和运输流模式的影响。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（0）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Inter-Asian Economic Partnerships and Their Impacts on International Cargo Flows-Methodologies-

亚洲间经济伙伴关系及其对国际货运的影响-方法论-

DOI：
发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
0
作者：
Ryuichi SHIBASAKI;Liqiang MA;Yasuo KANNAMI;Hitoshi IEDA;Takashi KADONO;石倉智樹;家田仁;米本清
通讯作者：
米本清

REGIONAL BASED INTERNATIONAL MARITIME CONTAINER CARGO FLOW ESTIMATION BETWEEN EAST ASIAN NATIONS

东亚国家之间基于区域的国际海运集装箱货运流量估算

DOI：
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
Proceedings of International Conference on Transportation Logistics 1(CD-ROM)
影响因子：
0
作者：
Ryuichi SHIBASAKI;Liqiang MA;Yauso KANNAMI;Hitoshi IEDA;Takashi KADONO
通讯作者：
Takashi KADONO

東アジア航空ネットワ-クにおける国際航空旅客流動分析のためのモデル開発

东亚航线网络国际航线客流分析模型开发