Research on process of economic development and environmental change in Asian cities

本研究的目的是分析城市发展与环境问题之间的关系，重点是亚洲城市，这些城市由于经济的快速增长而发生了剧烈的社会结构变化。此外，本研究还估计了亚洲城市二氧化碳排放量和垃圾量的未来趋势。亚洲城市面临着严重的工业污染，以及由于缺乏污水系统等城市环境基础设施而造成的城市环境污染。这种现象就是所谓的过度城市化，但不仅是全球化和贫困，而且产业结构对城市化进程的影响。在本研究中，使用增长核算分析法对代表城市技术发展的TFP（全要素生产率）进行了估算。在此基础上，分析了TFP增长率与城市化面积空间扩展的关系，结果表明，城市化面积的扩展幅度较大 关于我们 TFP增长率低的城市。环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）是关于经济发展与环境变化关系的著名假说。在此基础上，本文建立了分析模型，并对CO_2排放量和废弃物量的未来趋势进行了预测。在CO_2排放量方面，首先，在发展住宅能源需求模型的基础上，估算了东京、首尔、北京和上海四个亚洲特大城市的住宅能源需求量和CO_2排放量。此外，对于CO_2减排，通过情景方法评估了燃料类型因素、与能源相关的电器、住房和生活方式因素等措施的效果。针对废弃物产生的趋势，本研究以中国、日本、韩国、美国和欧洲部分国家的主要城市为研究对象，分析了经济发展过程中城市结构、基础设施和物质消耗之间的关系。研究结果表明，城市基础设施存量在经济增长过程中呈增长趋势，当存量达到一定水平后，流量增长率趋于平缓。虽然所有接受调查的国家的住宅调查结果相当相似，但非住宅调查结果反映了每个国家采取的不同增长战略。并估算了北京市生活垃圾产生量。结果表明，到2028年，北京市的生活垃圾处理量有可能超过垃圾填埋场的处理能力。少

The purpose of this research is to analyze the relationship between urban development and environmental problems with focusing on Asian cities where drastic social structural changes have been occurred by rapid economic growth. Moreover, this study also estimated future trend of CO2 emission and waste volume in Asian cities.Asian cities are feeing serious industrial pollution, as well as urban environmental pollutions which are caused by lack of urban environmental infrastructure, such as sewage system etc. This phenomena is so called over urbanization, however, not only globalization and poverty, but also industrial structure effects to urbanization process. In this study, the TFP(Total Factor Productivity) which represents the technological development of cities was estimated using growth accounting analysis. Then the relationship between TFP growth rate and spatial expansion of urbanized area was identified Results indicated that the extension of urbanized area was relatively large … More where the cities with low TFP growth. The Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC) is famous hypothesis regarding to the relationship between economic development and environmental change. We found that new financial mechanism, such as PFI help to lower the peak of the EKC.Based on the above analysis, we build analytical model and estimated future trends of CO_2 emissions and waste volume. First of all, regarding to CO_2 emission, residential energy demand and CO_2 emissions in the four Asian mega-cities of Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing and Shanghai were estimated based on the development of models for residential energy demand. In addition, for CO_2 emission reduction, effects of measures on fuel type factor ; energy-related appliances, housing and lifestyle factors are assessed by a scenario approach. CO_2 emission was estimated 30% lower in the controlled case than business as usual case.Regarding to trend of waste, this study conducted analysis of urban infrastructures in major cities in China, Japan, Korea, America and selected European nations, with the objective of analyzing the relationships between urban structures, infrastructure and material consumption in the process of economic development. Results indicate that there is an increase in urban infrastructurel stock during economic growth, and that the flow growth rate tends to flatten out after a certain level of stock is reached. While residential results are quite similar for all nations surveyed, non-residential results reflect the different growth strategies adopted by each nation. And we estimated the volume of municipal solid waste in Beijing. Then we found that there is a possibility that volume of MSW will excess the capacity of landfill in Beijing in 2028. Less