Research on process of economic development and environmental change in Asian cities

本研究的目的是分析城市发展与环境问题之间的关系，并以亚洲城市为重点，这些城市由于经济的快速增长而发生了剧烈的社会结构变化。此外，本研究还预测了未来亚洲城市二氧化碳排放和废物量的趋势。亚洲城市面临着严重的工业污染，以及城市环境污染，这是由于缺乏城市环境基础设施，如污水处理系统等造成的。这种现象被称为过度城市化，然而，不仅是全球化和贫困，还有产业结构对城市化进程的影响。本文采用增长核算方法对代表城市技术发展水平的全要素生产率（TFP）进行了估算。结果表明：全要素生产率增长率与城市化面积空间扩展的关系较为明显，全要素生产率增长率较低的城市城市化面积扩展幅度较大；环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）是关于经济发展与环境变化关系的著名假设。我们发现新的金融机制，如PFI有助于降低EKC峰值。在此基础上，建立了分析模型，并对未来co2排放量和废弃物量的趋势进行了预测。首先，在建立住宅能源需求模型的基础上，对东京、首尔、北京和上海4个亚洲特大城市的住宅能源需求和co2排放量进行了估算。此外，对于CO_2减排，措施对燃料类型因素的影响；与能源有关的电器、住房和生活方式因素通过情景方法进行评估。在控制情况下，二氧化碳排放量估计比正常情况下低30%。针对废弃物的趋势，本研究对中国、日本、韩国、美国和部分欧洲国家主要城市的城市基础设施进行了分析，目的是分析经济发展过程中城市结构、基础设施和物质消费之间的关系。结果表明：在经济增长过程中，城市基础设施存量有所增加，在存量达到一定水平后，流量增速趋于平缓；虽然所有被调查国家的住宅结果都非常相似，但非住宅结果反映了每个国家采用的不同增长战略。并对北京市城市生活垃圾总量进行了估算。研究发现，2028年北京城市生活垃圾有可能超过垃圾填埋场容量。少

The purpose of this research is to analyze the relationship between urban development and environmental problems with focusing on Asian cities where drastic social structural changes have been occurred by rapid economic growth. Moreover, this study also estimated future trend of CO2 emission and waste volume in Asian cities.Asian cities are feeing serious industrial pollution, as well as urban environmental pollutions which are caused by lack of urban environmental infrastructure, such as sewage system etc. This phenomena is so called over urbanization, however, not only globalization and poverty, but also industrial structure effects to urbanization process. In this study, the TFP(Total Factor Productivity) which represents the technological development of cities was estimated using growth accounting analysis. Then the relationship between TFP growth rate and spatial expansion of urbanized area was identified Results indicated that the extension of urbanized area was relatively large … More where the cities with low TFP growth. The Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC) is famous hypothesis regarding to the relationship between economic development and environmental change. We found that new financial mechanism, such as PFI help to lower the peak of the EKC.Based on the above analysis, we build analytical model and estimated future trends of CO_2 emissions and waste volume. First of all, regarding to CO_2 emission, residential energy demand and CO_2 emissions in the four Asian mega-cities of Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing and Shanghai were estimated based on the development of models for residential energy demand. In addition, for CO_2 emission reduction, effects of measures on fuel type factor ; energy-related appliances, housing and lifestyle factors are assessed by a scenario approach. CO_2 emission was estimated 30% lower in the controlled case than business as usual case.Regarding to trend of waste, this study conducted analysis of urban infrastructures in major cities in China, Japan, Korea, America and selected European nations, with the objective of analyzing the relationships between urban structures, infrastructure and material consumption in the process of economic development. Results indicate that there is an increase in urban infrastructurel stock during economic growth, and that the flow growth rate tends to flatten out after a certain level of stock is reached. While residential results are quite similar for all nations surveyed, non-residential results reflect the different growth strategies adopted by each nation. And we estimated the volume of municipal solid waste in Beijing. Then we found that there is a possibility that volume of MSW will excess the capacity of landfill in Beijing in 2028. Less