Research on process of economic development and environmental change in Asian cities

这项研究的目的是分析城市发展与环境问题的关系，重点关注亚洲城市，这些城市因经济的快速增长而发生了剧烈的社会结构变化。此外，本研究还预测了亚洲城市未来二氧化碳排放量和废物量的趋势。亚洲城市正感受到严重的工业污染，以及由于缺乏城市环境基础设施而造成的城市环境污染，如污水系统等。这种现象被称为过度城市化，然而，不仅全球化和贫困，而且产业结构对城市化进程也有影响。本研究采用增长核算分析方法，对代表城市技术发展水平的全要素生产率进行了估算。分析了全要素生产率增长率与城镇化区域空间扩展的关系，结果表明，城镇化区域的扩展程度较大，…更多的地方是全要素生产率增长较低的城市。环境库兹涅茨曲线是关于经济发展与环境变化关系的著名假说。我们发现，新的金融机制，如PFI，有助于降低EKC的峰值。在上述分析的基础上，我们建立了分析模型，并预测了未来CO_2排放量和废物量的趋势。首先，在建立住宅能源需求模型的基础上，对东京、首尔、北京和上海四个亚洲特大城市的住宅能源需求和CO2排放量进行了估算。此外，对于二氧化碳减排，对燃料类型因素、与能源相关的家电、住房和生活方式因素的措施的影响也通过情景方法进行了评估。针对垃圾的趋势，本研究对中国、日本、韩国、美国和部分欧洲国家的主要城市的基础设施进行了分析，目的是分析经济发展过程中城市结构、基础设施和物质消耗之间的关系。结果表明，城市基础设施存量在经济增长过程中有所增加，达到一定存量后，流量增长率趋于平缓。虽然所有接受调查的国家的居住结果非常相似，但非居住结果反映了每个国家采取的不同增长战略。并估算了北京的城市生活垃圾产生量。然后我们发现，2028年北京的垃圾填埋量有可能超过垃圾填埋场的容量。较少

The purpose of this research is to analyze the relationship between urban development and environmental problems with focusing on Asian cities where drastic social structural changes have been occurred by rapid economic growth. Moreover, this study also estimated future trend of CO2 emission and waste volume in Asian cities.Asian cities are feeing serious industrial pollution, as well as urban environmental pollutions which are caused by lack of urban environmental infrastructure, such as sewage system etc. This phenomena is so called over urbanization, however, not only globalization and poverty, but also industrial structure effects to urbanization process. In this study, the TFP(Total Factor Productivity) which represents the technological development of cities was estimated using growth accounting analysis. Then the relationship between TFP growth rate and spatial expansion of urbanized area was identified Results indicated that the extension of urbanized area was relatively large … More where the cities with low TFP growth. The Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC) is famous hypothesis regarding to the relationship between economic development and environmental change. We found that new financial mechanism, such as PFI help to lower the peak of the EKC.Based on the above analysis, we build analytical model and estimated future trends of CO_2 emissions and waste volume. First of all, regarding to CO_2 emission, residential energy demand and CO_2 emissions in the four Asian mega-cities of Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing and Shanghai were estimated based on the development of models for residential energy demand. In addition, for CO_2 emission reduction, effects of measures on fuel type factor ; energy-related appliances, housing and lifestyle factors are assessed by a scenario approach. CO_2 emission was estimated 30% lower in the controlled case than business as usual case.Regarding to trend of waste, this study conducted analysis of urban infrastructures in major cities in China, Japan, Korea, America and selected European nations, with the objective of analyzing the relationships between urban structures, infrastructure and material consumption in the process of economic development. Results indicate that there is an increase in urban infrastructurel stock during economic growth, and that the flow growth rate tends to flatten out after a certain level of stock is reached. While residential results are quite similar for all nations surveyed, non-residential results reflect the different growth strategies adopted by each nation. And we estimated the volume of municipal solid waste in Beijing. Then we found that there is a possibility that volume of MSW will excess the capacity of landfill in Beijing in 2028. Less