Study on the potential and marginal cost of energy conservation and pollutants reductions by sector in China

中国分行业节能减排潜力及边际成本研究

• 批准号: 12572044
• 负责人: LI Zhidong
• 金额: $ 6.59万
• 依托单位: Nagaoka University of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2000 至 2003
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-12572044/
• 关键词: China; Energy supply and demand; Energy efficiency and conservation; SO2 and CO2 emission; Energy security; Renewable energy development; Own efforts; International cooperation and CDM (Clean Development Mechanism); 計量経済モデル; エネルギー需要; エネルギー供給; 二

China, characterized by the world's largest population with about 1.3 billion inhabitants, is one of the most rapidly growing economies in the world. According to the official statistics, in the past 24 years since 1980, its annual GDP growth rate recorded a high of 95%, and the real term GDP has increased by 7.8 times. This achievement, however, has given rise to problems of net energy imports, environmental pollution and ecological destruction at home, cross-border pollution, and mounting carbon dioxide (CO_2) emissions.The total potential of energy conservation in China around 2000 was estimated at more the 220 Mtoe, with the largest potential in thermal power generation, followed by chemical and petrochemical industry, cement industry, iron and steel industry, and road transport sector.In the coming 30 years, China's GDP growth will be around 7% annually, and the continuation of rapid economic growth could result in a number of difficulty issues such as energy security, environment protection and CO_2 emissions reductions. China should solve these problems through its own efforts. The first step is to establish an empowered actor, and then to establish a comprehensive and coherent energy strategic system. Energy conservation should be promoted as national policy with highest priority ; measures such as development of renewable energy, diffusion of international commercialized cleaner coal technologies and establishing an emergency response system, should be conducted with higher priority ; but measures such as imposing environmental tax, industrialization of coal liquefaction and food-based fuel alcohol, should be given careful consideration. At the same time, international cooperation such as establishing an Energy Community in Northeast Asia region is also an important strategic option.

中国是世界上人口最多的国家，约有13亿人口，是世界上增长最快的经济体之一。据官方统计，1980年以来的24年间，中国国内生产总值年均增长95%，实际增长7.8倍。然而，这一成就也带来了能源净进口、国内环境污染和生态破坏、跨境污染和二氧化碳排放增加等问题。据估计，2000年前后中国节能总潜力约为2.2亿吨油当量，其中火力发电潜力最大，其次是化工石化、水泥、钢铁和道路运输行业。未来30年，中国的GDP将以每年7%左右的速度增长，经济持续高速增长将带来能源安全、环境保护、二氧化碳减排等一系列难题。中国应该通过自己的努力来解决这些问题。第一步是建立一个被授权的行动者，然后建立一个全面和连贯的能源战略体系。应把节能作为国家优先政策推进；应优先发展可再生能源、推广国际商业化清洁煤技术和建立应急系统等措施；但是，应该慎重考虑征收环境税、煤炭液化产业化、以食品为基础的燃料酒精等措施。同时，建立东北亚地区能源共同体等国际合作也是一个重要的战略选择。

项目成果

中国における原子力発電開発の現状と中長期展望

中国核电发展现状及中长期展望

• 发表时间: 2003
• 期刊: エネルギー経済 29, No.308
• 作者: Li Zhidong;Francois Godement;Francoise NIcolas;Taizo Yakushiji;Li Zhidong;李 志東
• 通讯作者: 李 志東

An Econometric Study on China's Long-Term Economy, Energy and Environment.

中国长期经济、能源和环境计量经济学研究。

• 发表时间: 2003
• 期刊: International Frameworks and Technological Strategies to Prevent Climate Change, Springer (Takamitsu Sawa (Ed.))
• 作者: Li Zhidong;Francois Godement;Francoise NIcolas;Taizo Yakushiji;Li Zhidong;李 志東;李 志東;Li Zhidong;李 志東;李 志東;Li Zhidong
• 通讯作者: Li Zhidong

北東アジアにおける電力分野の域内協力の方向性について

关于东北亚电力领域区域合作方向

• 发表时间: 2001
• 期刊: NIRA政策研究 14
• 作者: Li Zhidong;Francois Godement;Francoise NIcolas;Taizo Yakushiji;Li Zhidong;李 志東;李 志東;Li Zhidong;李 志東;李 志東;Li Zhidong;李 志東;李 志東;李 志東
• 通讯作者: 李 志東

アジアエネルギーパートナーシップ

亚洲能源伙伴关系

• 发表时间: 2004
• 作者: Li Zhidong;Francois Godement;Francoise NIcolas;Taizo Yakushiji;Li Zhidong;李 志東;李 志東;Li Zhidong;李 志東;李 志東;Li Zhidong;李 志東;李 志東;李 志東;李 志東;Li Zhidong;田辺 靖雄
• 通讯作者: 田辺 靖雄

China's Sustainable Energy Strategies in the 21st Century

中国21世纪可持续能源战略

• 发表时间: 2005
• 期刊: the Special Issue of the International Journal of Global Energy Issues Vol.24
• 作者: Li Zhidong;Dai Yande;Kokichi Ito;Zhang Aling
• 通讯作者: Zhang Aling