A New Lifetime Estimation Method Using the Combined Data of the Accelerated Test Data and the Inspection Data.

使用加速测试数据和检查数据的组合数据的新寿命估计方法。

• 批准号: 15510134
• 负责人: HIROSE Hideo
• 金额: $ 1.02万
• 依托单位: Kyusyu Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2003 至 2004
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-15510134/
• 关键词: accelerated life test; remaining lifetime; inspection; Weibull distribution; cumulative exposure model; power law; step-up test; conditional distribution; power law (べき乗則); step-up test (上昇法)

Accelerated life tests using the brand-new electrical insulation have long been used to estimate the lifetime of the insulation. Although a variety of types of stresses are imposed on the insulation in the accelerated life tests, the insulation is often broken more quickly than the estimated lifetime due to unexpected deterioration factors. The step-up breakdown voltage tests using the working insulation are then performed to assess the actual remaining lifetime of the insulation. However, theoretical explanations of the relation between these two test methods have not been made rigorously. One way to combine these two may be the cumulative exposure model proposed by Nelson, or Sedyakin model which is usually applied to short time accelerated life testing.In studying the cumulative exposure model, we have found a variety of difficulties in parameter estimation for the model; thereby this fact leads us to study first the breakdown voltage estimation using the step-up method. The step-up … More method is used to estimate the impulse breakdown voltages when the electrical insulation is not usable after it is broken. We analyses the reliability of the estimates of the underlying breakdown probability distribution in the step-up method, when (1)the observed breakdown voltage itself is available and (2)it is not available. The former case has many advantages compared to the latter case such that (1)the confidence intervals of the estimates become smaller and (2)the estimates can be obtained in stable. We summarize the results of the three cases that the underlying probability distribution for the breakdown voltage is assumed to be normal, Weibull, and gumbel types. The optimal test method is simply and clearly described for various distribution models. The new step-up test method is recommended when the underlying probability distribution is assumed to be some reliability distribution models. We first recommend the use of the parameters of the underlying probability distribution. Second, it is advantageous to use the new step-up method if the observed breakdown voltage itself rather than the two-valued information of breakdown and non-breakdown is available. Using the new step-up method, the number of test specimens can be substantially reduced comparing to that in the conventional step-up method to obtain the same estimation reliability. The optimal strategy of the step-up test to obtain the 50% breakdown voltage is to set the step-up distance to larger than the half of the standard deviation of the underlying distribution. Less

使用全新电气绝缘体的加速寿命测试长期以来一直被用来估计绝缘体的寿命。尽管在加速寿命试验中对绝缘体施加了各种类型的应力，但由于意外的劣化因素，绝缘体的破坏速度往往比估计寿命更快。然后使用工作绝缘体进行升压击穿电压测试，以评估绝缘体的实际剩余寿命。然而，这两种测试方法之间的关系尚未得到严格的理论解释。将两者结合起来的一种方法可能是Nelson提出的累积暴露模型，或者通常应用于短时加速寿命试验的Sedyakin模型。在研究累积暴露模型时，我们发现模型参数估计存在多种困难；因此，这一事实促使我们首先研究使用升压法估计击穿电压。升压法用于估算电气绝缘击穿后无法使用时的冲击击穿电压。当（1）观察到的击穿电压本身可用且（2）不可用时，我们分析了升压方法中基本击穿概率分布估计的可靠性。与后一种情况相比，前一种情况具有许多优点，例如（1）估计值的置信区间变小以及（2）可以稳定地获得估计值。我们总结了三种情况的结果，即假设击穿电压的基本概率分布为正态、威布尔和甘贝尔类型。针对各种分布模型，简单清晰地描述了最佳测试方法。当假设基础概率分布是某些可靠性分布模型时，建议使用新的逐步测试方法。我们首先建议使用基础概率分布的参数。其次，如果可以获得观察到的击穿电压本身而不是击穿和未击穿的二值信息，则使用新的升压方法是有利的。使用新的逐步提升方法，与传统的逐步提升方法相比，可以大大减少测试样本的数量，以获得相同的估计可靠性。获得50%击穿电压的升压测试的最佳策略是将升压距离设置为大于底层分布标准差的一半。较少的

项目成果

Low probability breakdown voltage estimation for the new step-up test method

新升压测试方法的低概率击穿电压估计

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 52
• 作者: Guo;Peijun;Katsuhiko Takahashi;Guo Peijun;H.Hirose
• 通讯作者: H.Hirose

More accurate breakdown voltage estimation for the new step-up test method in the Weibull model

威布尔模型中新的升压测试方法更准确地估计击穿电压

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: IEEE Trans., Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol.11, No.3
• 作者: Katsuhiko Takahashi;Katsuhiko Takahashi;Katsuhiko Takahashi;H.Hirose
• 通讯作者: H.Hirose

More accurate breakdown voltage estimation for the new step-up test method for various probability distribution models

针对各种概率分布模型的新升压测试方法，更准确地估计击穿电压

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: IEEE Trans., DEI 124
• 作者: Harunori Shishido;Dao-Zhi Zeng;Xiaoguang Yang;Katsuhiko Takahashi;H.Hirose
• 通讯作者: H.Hirose

More Accurate Breakdown Voltage Estimation for the New Step-up Test Method for Various Probability Disribution Models

各种概率分布模型的新升压测试方法更准确地估计击穿电压

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: IJEE Trans., A Vol.124, No.7
• 作者: Katsuhiko Takahashi;Katsuhiko Takahashi;Katsuhiko Takahashi;H.Hirose;Katsuhiko Takahashi;H.Hirose
• 通讯作者: H.Hirose

新段階昇圧法を用いた低破壊値の推定法について

关于新阶升压法低破坏值的估算方法

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: 統計数理 Vol.52, No.1
• 作者: Katsuhiko Takahashi;Katsuhiko Takahashi;Katsuhiko Takahashi;H.Hirose;Katsuhiko Takahashi;H.Hirose;廣瀬英雄
• 通讯作者: 廣瀬英雄