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Development of Economic Evaluation Methodology of Anti-quake Design for Port Facilities considering Catastrophic Risk

考虑巨灾风险的港口设施抗震设计经济评价方法开发

基本信息

批准号：
15510156
负责人：
SHIBASAKI Ryuichi
金额：
$ 2.3万
依托单位：
National Institute for Land, Infrastructure and Management
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2003
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2003 至 2005
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

When performing economic evaluations of quaywalls, breakwaters, and other port facilities, it is essential to consider not only the cost of construction and improvement of facilities and the cost of reconstructing facilities that have been damaged by an earthquake, but to also consider the loss of economic activities when they are damaged. In addition, a stochastic evaluation method must be developed, because these economic losses are very dependent on the state of damaged facilities. Thus the objective of this paper is to develop a stochastic evaluation method that can evaluate the economic impact of port facilities considering the cost of the loss of freight transportation, taking gravity-type quay walls as an example of port facilities.The problem is formulated as choosing the seismic coefficient of specific port facilities by the following procedure. i)First, for each gravity type quaywall that is evaluated, preparing the earthquake occurrence probability by scale defined for each … More port and its hypothetical section for each seismic coefficient, Next ii)estimating the state of damage that would occur by a Monte Carlo simulation based on the fragility curves by damage state that are provided for each hypothetical section. Then iii)estimating the restoration cost and loss of freight transportation cost for each pattern, while also considering the state of damage to neighboring ports. iv)calculating the expected damage by earthquakes with each seismic coefficient by summarizing the estimated cost of an earthquake of each scale multiplied by its occurrence frequency. And finally, v)totaling the construction cost and the expected damage obtained by iv)and setting a seismic coefficient that will minimize this total cost.The proposed method is applied to container berths in two sample ports. The first is a case of a port with only a single berth for container cargo, and the other is a case of a port with multiple berths for container cargo. The results show that the optimal seismic coefficients that are estimated occasionally differ depending on whether or not the cost of the loss of freight transportation was considered. Less

在对岸壁、防波堤等港口设施进行经济评价时，不仅要考虑设施的建设和改善费用，还要考虑因地震而受损的设施的重建费用，还要考虑受损时经济活动的损失。此外，必须开发一种随机评估方法，因为这些经济损失非常依赖于受损设施的状态。本文以重力式码头为例，建立了一种考虑货物运输损失成本的港口设施经济影响的随机评估方法，其问题可归结为具体港口设施抗震系数的选取。i）首先，对于评估的每个重力式岸壁，按照为每个定义的规模准备地震发生概率 ...更多信息其次ii）基于为每个假设截面提供的损坏状态的易损性曲线，通过蒙特卡罗模拟来估计将发生的损坏状态。然后，估计每种模式的恢复成本和货物运输成本的损失，同时也考虑到邻近港口的损坏状态。iv）通过将每种规模的地震的估计成本乘以其发生频率来计算每种地震系数的预期地震破坏。最后，将工程造价与由iv）计算得到的预期破坏值相加，并设定一个使总造价最小的抗震系数。第一种是只有一个货柜泊位的港口，第二种是有多个货柜泊位的港口。结果表明，最佳的抗震系数估计偶尔会有所不同，这取决于是否考虑货物运输的损失成本。少