Development of Economic Evaluation Methodology of Anti-quake Design for Port Facilities considering Catastrophic Risk

在对码头墙、防波堤和其他港口设施进行经济评估时，不仅要考虑设施的建设和改进成本以及被地震破坏的设施的重建成本，还要考虑这些设施被破坏时经济活动的损失。此外，必须开发一种随机评估方法，因为这些经济损失非常依赖于受损设施的状态。因此，本文的目的是以重力式码头墙为例，建立一种考虑货物运输损失成本的港口设施经济影响的随机评价方法。将该问题表述为通过以下程序选择特定港口设施的地震系数。i)首先，对于所评估的每个重力型码头墙，根据为每个定义的尺度准备地震发生的概率…更多的港口及其每个地震系数的假设截面，接下来ii)根据每个假设截面提供的破坏状态的易损性曲线，通过蒙特卡罗模拟估计可能发生的破坏状态。然后，估算每种模式下的修复成本和货运成本损失，同时考虑相邻港口的损坏情况。（四）用各震级地震的估计损失乘以其发生频率，用各地震系数计算地震的预期损失。最后，v)将建筑成本和iv)获得的预期损害加起来，并设置一个将总成本最小化的地震系数。将该方法应用于两个样本港口的集装箱泊位。第一种是港口只有一个集装箱货位的情况，另一种是港口有多个集装箱货位的情况。结果表明，所估计的最优地震系数有时会因是否考虑货物运输损失的成本而有所不同。少

When performing economic evaluations of quaywalls, breakwaters, and other port facilities, it is essential to consider not only the cost of construction and improvement of facilities and the cost of reconstructing facilities that have been damaged by an earthquake, but to also consider the loss of economic activities when they are damaged. In addition, a stochastic evaluation method must be developed, because these economic losses are very dependent on the state of damaged facilities. Thus the objective of this paper is to develop a stochastic evaluation method that can evaluate the economic impact of port facilities considering the cost of the loss of freight transportation, taking gravity-type quay walls as an example of port facilities.The problem is formulated as choosing the seismic coefficient of specific port facilities by the following procedure. i)First, for each gravity type quaywall that is evaluated, preparing the earthquake occurrence probability by scale defined for each … More port and its hypothetical section for each seismic coefficient, Next ii)estimating the state of damage that would occur by a Monte Carlo simulation based on the fragility curves by damage state that are provided for each hypothetical section. Then iii)estimating the restoration cost and loss of freight transportation cost for each pattern, while also considering the state of damage to neighboring ports. iv)calculating the expected damage by earthquakes with each seismic coefficient by summarizing the estimated cost of an earthquake of each scale multiplied by its occurrence frequency. And finally, v)totaling the construction cost and the expected damage obtained by iv)and setting a seismic coefficient that will minimize this total cost.The proposed method is applied to container berths in two sample ports. The first is a case of a port with only a single berth for container cargo, and the other is a case of a port with multiple berths for container cargo. The results show that the optimal seismic coefficients that are estimated occasionally differ depending on whether or not the cost of the loss of freight transportation was considered. Less