Non-surveying Construction of a 47 Interregional Input-Output Table and Calibration of SCGE Model

47个区域间投入产出表的非调查构建及SCGE模型的校正

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    15560458
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 2.37万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    日本
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
  • 财政年份:
    2003
  • 资助国家:
    日本
  • 起止时间:
    2003 至 2004
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

Main results of this research ate summarized as follows :1)Our approach for constructing interregional input-output table is regarded as a hybrid method in which initial trade coefficients estimated by the existing various social-economical data are successively adjusted to satisfy consistency conditions.2)Our non-surveying technique is based on a balancing-factor method, however, it differs from the conventional balancing-factor method in that our approach should solve linear equation systems for finding one of the balancing-factors.3)Convergence of the algorithm was successfully examined with usage of small size sample data of Japanese Inter-regional IO data. Application of the algorithm to 47-region data was successfully completed with less than one percentage errors between estimated and actual regional products ; however, for some sectors in several regions, the error exceeds more than ten percentages. Since the amounts of products in such sectors are relatively small, we can expe … More ct that those errors can be reduced by sector aggregation and do not have significant effects on further analysis as well.4)Constructed interregional input-out table consists of 45 sectors and 47 regions, of which elements account for as much as more than four hundred millions. For finding the Leontief inverse matrix, we have used GAUSS software package. Interdependence analysis is conducted using the 47-interregional table, and we have found interesting results about the economical iuterdependences among metropolitan areas and surrounding regions.5)We have proposed a new trade model which includes the concept of spatial advantage in terms of economic distance for distinct regions. Spatial advantage are measurable if one can use interregional IO data as the benchmark equilibrium, however, such data are rarely in use in the usual analysis. We have developed the dimension-reduction method in which three-dimensional parameters concerned with spatial advantage is transformed to two-dimensional parameters with assistance of exogenously given parameter on travel times between distinct regions. This method allows us to calibrate trade coefficients without interregional IO data.6)We have developed and examined several calibration procedures corresponding to the benchmark equilibrium data which are easily obtainable. The worst situation may be the case in which no data except the IO data for total region is available. Even in such a case, our approach can produce satisfactory results in constructing interregional IO estimates. If one can use a complete interregional IO date, the method can reproduce completely consistent estimates with given data by using transformation technique of Chenery-Moses model to Isard type.From these results, we can conclude that our approach provides a theoretically consistent and practically feasible SCGE model. Unfortunately, however, we could not implement SCGE analysis using the interregional IO data created in this research, mainly due to time limitation and the needs of solving a large scale of nonlinear equation systems. Since this is not an essential problem and merely a technical one, we are optimistic with respect to that. Less
本研究的主要成果概括如下:1)我们的区域间投入产出表构造方法是一种混合方法,通过对现有的各种社会经济数据估计的初始贸易系数进行逐次调整以满足一致性条件。2)我们的非测量技术基于平衡因子方法,但它与传统的平衡因子方法不同,它需要求解线性方程组来寻找平衡因子之一。3)使用日本区域间IO数据的小样本数据成功地检验了算法的收敛。将该算法应用于47个地区的数据,估计的地区产品与实际的地区产品之间的误差不到1个百分点;然而,对于几个地区的一些部门,误差超过10个百分点。由于这些部门的产品数量相对较少,我们可以使用…4)构建的区域间投入产出表由45个部门和47个区域组成,其中要素所占比例高达4亿以上。为了求出Leontief逆矩阵,我们使用了GAUSS软件包。利用47个区间表进行了相互依赖分析,我们发现了关于大都市区和周边地区之间经济依赖的有趣结果。5)我们提出了一个新的贸易模型,其中包含了不同地区经济距离方面的空间优势的概念。如果可以使用区域间的IO数据作为基准均衡,那么空间优势是可以衡量的,然而,这种数据很少在通常的分析中使用。我们发展了一种降维方法,即借助不同区域之间旅行时间的外来给定参数,将与空间优势有关的三维参数转换为二维参数。这种方法使我们能够在没有区域间IO数据的情况下校准贸易系数。6)我们开发并检查了几个与基准均衡数据相对应的校准程序,这些程序很容易获得。最糟糕的情况可能是除了Total Region的IO数据外没有其他数据可用。即使在这种情况下,我们的方法也可以在构建区域间IO估计时产生令人满意的结果。如果可以使用一个完整的区域间IO数据,则该方法可以通过Chenery-Mosse模型到Isard类型的转换技术来再现与给定数据完全一致的估计。从这些结果可以看出,我们的方法提供了一个理论上一致的和实际可行的SCGE模型。然而,由于时间限制和求解大规模非线性方程组的需要,我们无法利用本研究中创建的区域间IO数据进行SCGE分析。由于这不是一个本质问题,而仅仅是一个技术问题,我们对此持乐观态度。较少

项目成果

期刊论文数量(42)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
都市鉄道整備における費用負担スキームの比較分析
城市轨道交通建设成本分摊方案比较分析
独立した輸送部門を前提にした地域間交易モデル
基于独立运输部门的区域间贸易模式
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2004
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Ishikawa;Y.;T.Miyagi;宮城 俊彦
  • 通讯作者:
    宮城 俊彦
The Construction of a 47-Regional Inter-Regional Input-Output Table and Inter-regional Interdependence Analysis at Prefecture level in Japan
日本47个地区县级区域间投入产出表构建及区域间相互依存分析
氷解モデルを基礎とした地域間交易モデルの基本構造:応用一般均衡モデルによるアプローチ
基于融冰模型的区域间贸易模型的基本结构:应用一般均衡模型的方法
Interregional trade modeling based on sepnrated transport sector
基于分离运输部门的区域间贸易模型
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MIYAGI Toshihiko其他文献

MIYAGI Toshihiko的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('MIYAGI Toshihiko', 18)}}的其他基金

A Study on Dynamic Traffic Assignment Based on An Atomic Model of Route-Choice
基于路由选择原子模型的动态交通分配研究
  • 批准号:
    26420511
  • 财政年份:
    2014
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Theory of Reinforcement Learning and Algorithms of Route Choice in Transportation Networks
交通网络中的强化学习理论与路径选择算法
  • 批准号:
    22360201
  • 财政年份:
    2010
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
The Study on Development and Applicability of Knowledge-Based Learning Algorithm for Route Guidance
基于知识学习的路径引导算法开发及适用性研究
  • 批准号:
    18560519
  • 财政年份:
    2006
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Sensitivity Analysis for Multiregional General Equilibrium Models
多区域一般均衡模型的敏感性分析
  • 批准号:
    13650582
  • 财政年份:
    2001
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Integration of Transportation Planning Process Combining with Demand Forecasting Process
交通规划流程与需求预测流程的集成
  • 批准号:
    11650545
  • 财政年份:
    1999
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
A STUDY ON APPLIED NETWORK EQUILIBRIUM MODELS
应用网络均衡模型的研究
  • 批准号:
    07650618
  • 财政年份:
    1995
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
A formulation of spatial price equilibrium model and its computation procedure
空间价格均衡模型的建立及其计算过程
  • 批准号:
    63550387
  • 财政年份:
    1988
  • 资助金额:
    $ 2.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
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