Development of a GIS Supporting Community-based Planning for Disaster Mitigation Integrated with a Fire Spread Simulation Model Using Cellular Automata

本研究试图透过社区规划实践，发展规划支援工具，以促进行政机关与居民的合作，改善防灾成效。研究结果如下：1）在GIS的支持下，开发了城镇街区灾害风险评价方法，作为一种在实践中了解社区尺度灾害风险和危害性的方法。开发的方法的实用性被证实应用到现有的建成区和利用领域。2）为了向居民明确地提供通过改善当地环境来提高减灾性能的效果的信息，本文试图建立一个能直观地模拟火灾蔓延过程的模型，该模型以3m × 3m为单元，使用复合体的元胞自动机 ...更多信息 系统.开发的模型被应用到日本的历史建成区。基于应用程序的模拟结果和日本建成区的实际火灾记录，模型的校准和重复性进行了检查和讨论。从结果来看，我们相信，模拟结果的使用，使它有助于检查在当地环境的改善在协同规划过程中的效果。3）本研究试图开发基于GIS的系统，其中包括一个开发的火灾蔓延模拟模型2），以帮助社区为基础的减灾规划。该系统由“减灾相关地理信息子系统”、“火灾蔓延模拟子系统”、“建筑面积改善子系统”和“建筑面积改善效果确认子系统”组成。作为一个案例研究，在一个关于社区减灾规划的实际讲习班上试用了所开发的系统。从结果中，我们讨论了系统的有效性和存在的问题。4）另一方面，我们试图开发系统，它有助于居民达成共识，它支持在讲习班的灾害措施的规划。并通过实验验证了所开发系统的实用性。此外，作为一种考核社区防灾活动的方法，我们尝试以社区和邻里防灾组织为重点，运用层次分析法和ISM对社区防灾能力进行量化，以促进居民防灾活动的持续性和主动性。并对量化的有效性进行了讨论。少

This research attempts to develop planning support tool to promote the improvement for disaster mitigation through a community-based planning practice by collaboration of administration and residents. The results are as follows ;1) As a method for understanding of disaster risk and dangerousness with community-scale in the field of the practice, disaster risk evaluation method with town block is developed using GIS. The usefulness of the developed method is confirmed by application to existing build-up area and utilization in the field. And, the issue of the method is pointed out.2) For plainly offering residents the information about the effect of increase in disaster mitigation performance by improvement of the local environment, we tried to develop a fire spread simulation model that can simulate visually and plainly show the detailed fire spreading process with cell unit of 3 by 3m that traditional models cannot represent in the built-up areas using Cellular Automata of the Complex … More Systems. The developed model was applied to a Japanese historical built-up area. Based on the simulation results by the application and the actual fire records of Japanese built-up areas, the calibration and reproducibility of the model was examined and discussed. From the result, we are confident that the use of simulation result makes it useful for examining the effects of improvements in the local environment during the collaborative planning process.3) This research tries to develop GIS-based system which is incorporated a developed fire spread simulation model of 2) to aid community-based planning for disaster mitigation. The system is composed by "Disaster mitigation related Geographic information subsystem", "Fire spread simulation subsystem", "Built-up area improvement subsystem" and "Confirmation of effects of built-up area improvement subsystem". As a case study, the developed system was used on trial in an actual Workshop on community-based planning for disaster mitigation. From the result, we discuss the effectiveness and problems of the system.4) On the other hand, we tried to develop the system that it contributes to residents making consensus and it supports the planning of disaster measures in the Workshop. And, usefulness of the developed system was verified by experimentation. In addition, as a method to check disaster-prevention activity of a community, we tried to quantification of community disaster mitigation capability focusing on community and neighborhood disaster organizations using AHP and ISM to promote continually disaster-prevention activity with initiative of residents. And, the validity of the quantification is discussed. Less