A GIS-based Planning Support System for Environment-considered Urban Development in Developing Countries

本研究尝试利用专家系统与元胞自动机模式，并将其与地理资讯系统整合，以发展一个以地理资讯系统为基础的规划支援系统，以协助亚洲发展中国家的环境考量都市发展.开发了一个支持环境区划的专家系统。从四个现有的日本环境管理计划的知识库检测。提出的评价方法允许在所获得的数据范围内进行推断，并使用卫星数据作为发展中国家难以获得的统计数据的替代品。在确认了日本和韩国城市的适用性后，将该系统应用于发展中国家的两个学科地区。应用结果表明了该系统的实用性和发展方向.建立了一个基于元胞自动机的城市增长模型。在这里开发的模型的再现性示出通过应用到日本丰桥丰川地区。通过对两个研究区的实验应用表明，该模型可以用于预测未来的城市扩展，但仍有进一步改进的空间. EEZM和CA模型与GIS的集成，使决策者能够反映每个分区的大小的价值判断，并进行各种基于GIS的模拟。此外，通过将模拟结果与分区图叠加，提出了一种工具，以提供各种信息来评价开发适宜性。该工具可以检测未来的森林砍伐区域、符合未来开发条件的区域以及未来的危险区域。通过对印度尼西亚马卡萨尔的应用，表明该系统是有用的，可以为考虑环境的城市发展提供一些建议。

This research is attempted to develop a GIS-based planning support system to aid environment-considered urban development in Asian developing countries, by using an expert system and cellular automata modelling and integrating them with a GIS.The results are as follows.1. An expert system for supporting environmental zoning (EEZM) is developed. The knowledge base is detected from four existing Japanese environmental management plans. The evaluation methods are proposed that allow the inference within the limits of acquired data and use satellite data as a substitute for statistical data that are hard to be obtained in developing countries. After the confirmation of the propriety of the results in Japanese and Korean cities, the system is applied to the two subjects areas in developing countries. The results of the application indicate the usefulness and future direction of the system.2. An urban growth model using cellular automata (CA model) is developed. The reproductivity of the model developed here is shown through an application to Toyohashi-Toyokawa region in Japan. It follows from an experimental application to the two subjects areas that the proposed model is of use to predict future urban expansion, but also has some room for further improvement.3. The integration of EEZM and CA model with a GIS makes it possible for decision-makers to reflect the value judgment for the magnitude for each zoning district and to perform various scenario-based simulations. Moreover, by overlaying simulation results and zoning map, a tool is proposed to provide different kinds of information to evaluate development suitability. This tool can detect future deforestation areas, areas eligible for future development, and future hazard areas. Through an application to Makassar in Indonesia, it is shown that the proposed system is useful and can give some suggestions for environment-considered urban development.