School Closures and NPIs during the Great Influenza Pandemic in Sweden

瑞典流感大流行期间学校停课和非营利机构

• 批准号: 467132381
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Martin Karlsson
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Department of Business and Economics
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 资助国家: 德国
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/467132381?language=en
• 关键词: Closures; NPIs; during; Great; Influenza

The overall aim of the project is to increase our knowledge on the consequences for health and human capital of school closures and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during a pandemic, with an application to Sweden during the 1918-19 influenza pandemic. Within the project, we will construct an exceptionally rich historical database, which includes a) extremely detailed and accurate individual-level information (demographics, socioeconomic background, place of residence/schooling, labour market outcomes, etc), and b) detailed high-quality aggregate data regarding the timing and intensity of the pandemic, measures taken to contain it, and a large number of background variables. The database will include the entire Swedish population at the time (5.4M) and all 2.500 local authorities.Using this outstanding database, research in the project will address three broad research questions: 1) Did the NPIs, in particular school closures, have the intended effect on the spread of the pandemic? Under what circumstances and in what subpopulations where the measures particularly effective? (2) What were the long-run consequences for the school children affected by the closures – in terms of educational attainment, labour market outcomes and other indicators of socioeconomic status? (3) How does the local distribution of political power affect the propensity to enact NPIs? Is it easier to implement harsh measures if political power is concentrated in the hand of a few, and are there signs that there is a conflict of interest between the elites in society and the broad masses?The project is executed as an international collaboration between researchers in Germany and Denmark. In particular, the project aims at bringing together complementary expertise in a number of different areas which enable the construction of an outstanding dataset, an evaluation of the data using state-of-the art econometric techniques, with a deep understanding of the historical context and of the various different literatures which are relevant.The results of the project would be of great interest within academia and to policy-makers and other societal stakeholders. The Great Inluenza Pandemic has some striking similarities with the COVID-19 pandemic (as well as some notable differences) and therefore represents a promising case study for understanding some of the deeper implications of measures taken today.

该项目的总体目标是增加我们对大流行期间学校关闭和其他非药物干预措施 (NPI) 对健康和人力资本造成的后果的了解，并在 1918-19 流感大流行期间应用于瑞典。在该项目中，我们将构建一个极其丰富的历史数据库，其中包括：a）极其详细和准确的个人层面信息（人口统计、社会经济背景、居住/就学地点、劳动力市场结果等）；b）有关大流行的时间和强度、采取的遏制措施以及大量背景变量的详细高质量汇总数据。该数据库将包括当时瑞典的全部人口（540 万）和所有 2500 个地方当局。利用这个出色的数据库，该项目的研究将解决三个广泛的研究问题：1）非营利机构（特别是学校关闭）是否对大流行的传播产生了预期的影响？在什么情况下、在什么亚人群中，这些措施特别有效？ (2) 受学校关闭影响的学童在教育程度、劳动力市场结果和其他社会经济地位指标方面会产生哪些长期后果？ (3) 地方政治权力分配如何影响非营利机构的制定倾向？如果政治权力集中在少数人手中，是不是更容易实施严厉措施？有迹象表明社会精英与广大群众之间存在利益冲突吗？该项目是德国和丹麦研究人员的国际合作项目。特别是，该项目旨在汇集多个不同领域的互补专业知识，从而构建出色的数据集，使用最先进的计量经济学技术评估数据，并深入了解历史背景和各种不同的相关文献。该项目的结果将引起学术界、政策制定者和其他社会利益相关者的极大兴趣。大流感大流行与 COVID-19 大流行有一些惊人的相似之处（也有一些显着的差异），因此是一个很有前景的案例研究，有助于理解当今所采取措施的一些更深层次的影响。