Macroeconomic Policy during a Deflation Era : A Research on Effectiveness of Inflation Target Policies

本研究分三章对研究结果进行了报告，每一章都对通货膨胀目标制实施的不同方面进行了报告。第一章是通货膨胀目标制的理论模型。该模型的一个新的功能，形成的期望模型的参数，表明以下结果。(1)由对政策的“承诺”产生的最优均衡是唯一的均衡，它等价于Barro-Gordon（2）的均衡。本章最重要的结果之一是指出了当政策是自由裁量时的两个均衡。第一种是“主动”平衡，第二种是“被动”平衡。在形式通货紧缩下，货币政策可能导致通货紧缩。(3)在“被动的”自由裁量的货币政策下，有可能出现恶性通货膨胀;然而，除非政策当局 ...更多信息 （4）如果经济的不稳定不是由于当局的积极产出政策，而是由于经济中的随机扰动，那么被动的货币政策比积极的货币政策更可取。(5)在通货膨胀的被动均衡中，通货膨胀目标制政策是成功的;而在通货紧缩的均衡中，通货膨胀目标制政策是积极的，这是因为均衡是不稳定的。(6)如果当局选择稳定产出的政策，它将相对于公众的预期采取过度的行动。下面两章的主题是对通货膨胀目标制政策实施的各个方面进行评估。在第二章中，为了评估政策反应函数，对估计中的主要数据进行了仔细的检验。特别是，国内生产总值，调用率，非耐用品和服务的消费和有效汇率的变量序列的趋势的存在进行了检查。经检验后，三种非结构性去趋势方法被应用于本地生产总值数列。政策响应函数的实际估计有待后续研究。第三章对自然利率的概念进行了概述。自然利率对应于自然失业率，政策当局将使用基准来评估其经济的现状。少

This research reports the results in three chapter research report In each chapter different aspects related to the implementation of the inflation targeting is reported. The summary of the chapters are followings.In the first chapter, the theoretical model for the inflation targeting is reported. A novel feature of the model, formation of expectations about the parameters of the model, indicated the following results.(1) Optimal equilibrium resulting from the "commitment' to the policy is the unique one which is equivalent to that of Barro-Gordon(2) One of the most important results from this chapter is indicating the two equilibriums when the policy is discretionary. The first one is called "active" equilibrium and the second one is called "passive" equilibrium. Under the formal one, deflation may be caused by the monetary policy.(3) Under the "passive" discretionary monetary policy, there is a possibility of hyper-inflation; however, this does not happen unless the policy authority … More aims at the above-natural rate of output(4) If an instability of the economy is not because of the aggressive output policy of the authority, but because of the stochastic disturbances in the economy, the passive monetary policy is preferable to the active monetary policy.(5) Inflation targeting policy will result in success if the economy is under inflation in passive equilibrium; however; the policy will likely to fail if the policy is active where deflation is prevalent This is because that the equilibria are instable.(6) If the authority chooses to the output stabilizing policy, it will over act relative to the public's expectations.The main themes of the following two chapters are to estimate the various aspects of implementations of the inflation targeting policy. In the second chapter, to evaluate the policy response function, the major data in estimation is carefully examined. Particularly, variable series of GDP, call rate, consumption of non-durables and services and effective exchange rate are examined for the presence of trends. After the examination, three methods of non-structural measure of detrending are applied to the GDP series. Actual estimation of a policy response function is remained for the successive researches. In the third chapte4 the conceptual aspect of the natural rate of interest is summarized. The natural rate of interest rate corresponds to the natural rate of unemployment and policy authority would use a benchmark to evaluate the current status of her economy. Less