An empirical study of irrational behavior and expected utility theory.

非理性行为和预期效用理论的实证研究。

• 批准号: 16530410
• 负责人: ANDO Akihito
• 金额: $ 1.22万
• 依托单位: Mukogawa Women's University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2004 至 2005
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-16530410/
• 关键词: expected utility theory; irrational behavior; gambling behavior; desire for control; regret; joy; decision making; risk; 擬似ギャンブリング行動; コントロール錯覚; 原因帰属

The study was investigated to clarify the psychological mechanisms of irrational behavior which was not fully explained by the expected utility theory in economics. Data on irrational behavior was collected from the various perspectives such as gambling behavior, decision making, "psychological purse", reliability assessment of prediction, and risk recognition.An analysis of computer-mediated experiments on gambling behavior revealed that decision-making with satisfaction and joy was attributed internally, and that decision-making with regret was attributed externally. This selective attribution strategy made it possible to avoid having internal feeling of discomfort or feeling of insufficiency.Results on decision-making experiments under quiz competition made it clear that subjects who had strong desire for control tended to make final decision by themselves. Irrespective of the degree of strength of desire for control, there was no significant difference of the feeling of regret between ‘consistent decision' and ‘altered decision.' On the feeling of joy, however, the feeling of joy with ‘consistent decision' is stronger that that with ‘altered decision.' This result suggests that human decision making is biased to conduct irrational decision to get comfortable feeling.To put together the results and implications from the studies on "psychological purse", reliability assessment of prediction, and risk recognition, maximum utilization of cognitive/behavioral resources makes it possible to adapt ourselves to our environment, and on that meaning, irrational behavior is suggested to have a bounded rationality under the available resources.

本研究的目的在于阐明经济学中预期效用理论不能完全解释的非理性行为的心理机制。从赌博行为、决策、“心理钱包”、预测的可靠性评估、风险识别等不同角度收集非理性行为的数据，通过对赌博行为的计算机中介实验的分析，发现满意和快乐的决策归因于内部，后悔的决策归因于外部。这种选择性归因策略使被试避免了内心的不适感或不足感。智力竞赛条件下的决策实验结果表明，控制欲强的被试倾向于自己做最后的决策。不论控制欲强弱，“一致性决定”与“改变性决定”的后悔感均无显著差异。然而，在快乐感方面，“一致的决定”的快乐感比“改变的决定”的快乐感更强。“这一结果表明，人类的决策是有偏见的，为了获得舒适的感觉而进行非理性的决策。综合“心理钱包”、预测可靠性评估和风险识别等研究的结果和启示，最大限度地利用认知/行为资源使我们能够适应我们的环境，并在此意义上，非理性行为被认为是有限理性的。