Seismic Vulnerability Assessment for Future Cities with Mainstay Function of Japan on the Basis of Movement Prediction of the Population

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The tendency of overconcentration has continued to increase in the cities with mainstay function of Japan, as Tokyo Metropolitan area. The aspects of earthquake disaster are apt to be affected by social change with the times, and the recent tendency of aging society in Japan has produced new aspects of disaster. The seismic vulnerability should be assessed for future cities under consideration of social change with the times. In this research project, a quantitative method of seismic vulnerability assessment is proposed to develop for the future cities with mainstay function of Japan in 2030.(1)The Important factors with large effects on earthquake disaster are extracted quantitatively by principal component analysis. Here, earthquake disasters are considered for direct damage (human bodies, buildings and so on) and indirect damage (lifelines, victims unable to return home and so on).(2) A method of seismic vulnerability assessment on the basis of principal component analysis is examined by actual damage due to the 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu earthquake.(3) Earthquake vulnerability assessments for the present cities and future cities of Japan in 2030 are compared. The object cities with mainstay function for assessment are Tokyo Metropolitan area, Nagoya economic area, Osaka economic area and Fukuoka economic area.(4) Seismic damage assessment of petrochemical complex is proposed by event tree analysis for the central Chiba coastal industrial zone of Tokyo Bay.(5) The basic information for seismic risk assessment, that is, strong earthquake ground motion prediction, is proposed by considering phase difference characteristics of ground motion. Further, referring this research fruits, the effects of simultaneous action input from horizontal and vertical ground motion are studied on earthquake response characteristics of base isolated high-rise building.