Seismic Vulnerability Assessment for Future Cities with Mainstay Function of Japan on the Basis of Movement Prediction of the Population

在东京都等以日本为主体功能的城市中，过度集中的趋势继续增加。地震灾害的各个方面都容易受到时代社会变迁的影响，而近年来日本社会老龄化的趋势又产生了新的灾害方面。未来城市的地震易损性应考虑到社会的与时俱进的变化。在本研究项目中，提出了一种定量评估地震易损性的方法，为2030年日本未来具有支柱功能的城市发展提供依据。(1)通过主成分分析，定量提取对地震灾害影响较大的重要因素。本文将地震灾害分为直接损害(人体、建筑物等)和间接损害(生命线、无法回家的灾民等)。(2)以1995年Hyogoken-Nanbu地震的实际破坏为例，检验了基于主成分分析的地震易损性评估方法。(3)比较了2030年日本现有城市和未来城市的地震易损性评估。以东京市东京都、名古屋经济区、大阪经济区和福冈经济区为主要评估对象。(4)以东京湾千叶滨海工业区为例，采用事件树分析方法，提出了石油化工综合体震害评估方法。(5)考虑地震动位相差异特征，提出了地震危险性评估的基本信息，即强震地震动预测。在此基础上，结合本文的研究成果，研究了水平地震动和竖向地震动共同作用对基础隔震高层建筑地震反应特性的影响。

The tendency of overconcentration has continued to increase in the cities with mainstay function of Japan, as Tokyo Metropolitan area. The aspects of earthquake disaster are apt to be affected by social change with the times, and the recent tendency of aging society in Japan has produced new aspects of disaster. The seismic vulnerability should be assessed for future cities under consideration of social change with the times. In this research project, a quantitative method of seismic vulnerability assessment is proposed to develop for the future cities with mainstay function of Japan in 2030.(1)The Important factors with large effects on earthquake disaster are extracted quantitatively by principal component analysis. Here, earthquake disasters are considered for direct damage (human bodies, buildings and so on) and indirect damage (lifelines, victims unable to return home and so on).(2) A method of seismic vulnerability assessment on the basis of principal component analysis is examined by actual damage due to the 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu earthquake.(3) Earthquake vulnerability assessments for the present cities and future cities of Japan in 2030 are compared. The object cities with mainstay function for assessment are Tokyo Metropolitan area, Nagoya economic area, Osaka economic area and Fukuoka economic area.(4) Seismic damage assessment of petrochemical complex is proposed by event tree analysis for the central Chiba coastal industrial zone of Tokyo Bay.(5) The basic information for seismic risk assessment, that is, strong earthquake ground motion prediction, is proposed by considering phase difference characteristics of ground motion. Further, referring this research fruits, the effects of simultaneous action input from horizontal and vertical ground motion are studied on earthquake response characteristics of base isolated high-rise building.