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Seismic Risk Assessment for Tokyo Bay Region by Geographic Information System

利用地理信息系统进行东京湾地区地震风险评估

基本信息

批准号：
13680547
负责人：
NAGAHASHI Sumio
金额：
$ 0.64万
依托单位：
Chiba Institute of Technology
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2001
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2001 至 2002
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-13680547/
关键词：
Seismic Risk Assessment Tokyo Bay Region Economic Vitality Social Vitality Regional Vitality Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster Geographic Information System Overconcentration in the Metropolitan area 地理情報システム(GIS)

项目摘要

The Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster indicates that the complicated interaction of individual earthquake damage phenomena may have a strong overall impact on the region-wide damage. So we propose the concept of an "Economic Vitality" index in evaluating earthquake risk potential. This is an evaluation index with which to forecast earthquake damage and trouble degree from two viewpoints, one for a micro evaluation for each city ward, and the other for a region-wide macro evaluation.First, we presume damage from the quake by an empirical method. We then evaluate the interaction effects of damage on the region by potential, taking into account various regional characteristics derived from the national census, business statistics and so on. We propose to show the concept and method of "Economic Vitality" index. This index is designed to evaluate the degree of trouble by comparing the economic vitality in an ordinary circumstance and the lowered one in a disaster-stricken circumstance. We also make a case study regarding the seismic risk analysis of damage in the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake for the Hanshin bay area.Secondary, we try to verify the general validity of the Economic Vitality evaluation method for other regions in Japan as well. In particular, we propose to make a seismic risk assessment for the Tokyo Bay region pursuant to the evaluation method. Specifically, we intend to show that we can evaluate a seismic risk by sizing up a possible decline in the Economic Vitality index from the normal level when an earthquake strikes. We finally try to compare our own seismic risk assessment with an earlier similar assessment made by Tokyo Metropolis pursuant to a conventional evaluation method, thereby testifying to the unique effectiveness of the evaluation index of ours.

阪神-阿瓦吉地震灾害表明，个别震害现象的复杂相互作用可能会对整个区域的破坏产生强烈的整体影响。因此，我们提出了评估地震危险性的“经济活力”指数的概念。这是一个从两个角度预测震害和灾情程度的评估指标，一个是对每个城区进行微观评估，另一个是对整个地区进行宏观评估。然后，我们根据全国人口普查、商业统计等得出的各种区域特征，按潜力评估损害对该地区的相互影响。提出了“经济活力”指数的概念和方法。这一指数旨在通过比较正常情况下的经济活力和受灾情况下较低的经济活力来评估问题的程度。并以阪神-Awaji地震对阪神海湾地区的震害风险进行了实例分析。其次，我们试图验证经济活力评估方法在日本其他地区的普遍有效性。特别是，我们建议根据该评估方法对东京湾地区进行地震风险评估。具体地说，我们打算表明，我们可以通过评估地震发生时经济活力指数从正常水平可能下降的情况来评估地震风险。最后，我们尝试将我们自己的地震危险性评估与东京都早先按照常规评估方法进行的类似评估进行了比较，从而证明了我们的评估指标的独特有效性。