Seismic Risk Assessment for Tokyo Bay Region by Estimation of Regional Vitality Decline in Earthquake Disaster

本研究针对东京湾地区、名古屋经济圈和大阪经济圈这三个具有经济潜力的大都市圈，提出了地震易损性评价方法，作为地震风险管理的一部分。该方法提出了几种地震灾害的时间序列地震易损性评价，包括相关区域间的两种连锁反应，即地震易损性引力和地震易损性潜力。本研究的主要成果如下：(1)提出了社会活力的概念，利用地震灾害后的社会活动来评价地震易损性。(2)讨论了该方法用于地震易损性评价的合理性，以及1995年阪神- awaji地震灾害近基地区地震易损性评价结果与实际损失的高度相关性。(3)定量地表明，每个城市、每个区域和每个球体都可能具有各自城市、区域或球体特有的地震易损性特征。(4)城市、区域和领域随着时间的变迁必将发生显著的变化。针对这些现实趋势，尝试在考虑老龄化社会等未来城市社会变化的情况下，进行未来城市地震易损性评价的估计。综上所述，本研究强调，在现代社会地震灾害的实际方面，地震易损性评估除了考虑人的损失和物的损失外，还应考虑各种地震灾害，地震风险评估应考虑城市、区域和领域之间地震灾害的相互影响。

In this study, an method of seismic vulnerability assessment for the three metropolitan regions with economically high potential in Japan, that is, Tokyo Bay region, Nagoya economic sphere and Osaka economic sphere, as one part of earthquake risk management. This method proposes the seismic vulnerability assessment in time series for several kinds of earthquake disaster, including the two ripple effects among concerned regions, namely earthquake disaster vulnerability gravitation and earthquake disaster vulnerability potential. The prime products in this study are as follows :(1) The concept of social vitality is proposed for a seismic vulnerability assessment by use of the social activity fall attendant upon earthquake disaster.(2) The propriety of this method for seismic vulnerability assessment is discussed, and the high correlation between the assessment results and actual damage in Kinki District due to the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster.(3) It is quantitatively shown that every city, every region and every sphere may be characterized by the seismic vulnerabilities peculiar to respective city, region or sphere.(4) City, region and sphere are sure to undergo a remarkable transfiguration with the time transitions. In the light of these real trends, the estimation of seismic vulnerability assessment of future city is tried in consideration of aging society and other social changes in future cities.In conclusion, it is emphasized in this study that the various kind of earthquake disaster, in addition to human damage and physical damage, should be considered for seismic vulnerability assessment on the basis of the actual aspects in earthquake disaster of the modern society, and that the mutual effects of earthquake disaster among cities, regions and spheres should be taken into account in seismic risk assessment.