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Seismic Risk Assessment for Tokyo Bay Region by Estimation of Regional Vitality Decline in Earthquake Disaster

通过估计地震灾害中区域活力下降来评估东京湾地区的地震风险

基本信息

批准号：
15510153
负责人：
NAGAHASHI Sumio
金额：
$ 2.18万
依托单位：
Chiba Institute of Technology
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2003
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2003 至 2004
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-15510153/
关键词：
Tokyo Bay Region Three Metropolitan Regions of Japan Seismic Risk Assessment Seismic Vulnerability Principal Component Analysis Future City Aging Society Geographic Information System 地震脆弱性評価地震災害脆弱引力地震災害脆弱ポテンシャル首都圏名古屋・東海経済圏近

项目摘要

In this study, an method of seismic vulnerability assessment for the three metropolitan regions with economically high potential in Japan, that is, Tokyo Bay region, Nagoya economic sphere and Osaka economic sphere, as one part of earthquake risk management. This method proposes the seismic vulnerability assessment in time series for several kinds of earthquake disaster, including the two ripple effects among concerned regions, namely earthquake disaster vulnerability gravitation and earthquake disaster vulnerability potential. The prime products in this study are as follows :(1) The concept of social vitality is proposed for a seismic vulnerability assessment by use of the social activity fall attendant upon earthquake disaster.(2) The propriety of this method for seismic vulnerability assessment is discussed, and the high correlation between the assessment results and actual damage in Kinki District due to the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster.(3) It is quantitatively shown that every city, every region and every sphere may be characterized by the seismic vulnerabilities peculiar to respective city, region or sphere.(4) City, region and sphere are sure to undergo a remarkable transfiguration with the time transitions. In the light of these real trends, the estimation of seismic vulnerability assessment of future city is tried in consideration of aging society and other social changes in future cities.In conclusion, it is emphasized in this study that the various kind of earthquake disaster, in addition to human damage and physical damage, should be considered for seismic vulnerability assessment on the basis of the actual aspects in earthquake disaster of the modern society, and that the mutual effects of earthquake disaster among cities, regions and spheres should be taken into account in seismic risk assessment.

本文研究了作为地震风险管理的一部分，对日本三大经济潜力大的都市圈，即东京湾地区、名古屋经济圈和大坂经济圈的地震易损性进行评估的方法。该方法提出了对几种地震灾害进行时间序列的地震易损性评估，包括了地震灾害易损性引力和地震灾害易损性潜势两种涟漪效应。本研究的主要成果如下：（1）提出了社会活力的概念，并将其应用于地震灾害社会活动的衰减，用于地震易损性评价。(2)讨论了该方法在地震易损性评估中的适用性，并分析了1995年坂神淡路地震中近畿地区地震易损性评估结果与实际损失的高度相关性。(3)定量地表明，每个城市、每个地区和每个球都可以用各自的城市、地区或球所特有的地震易损性来表征。(4)城市、区域和领域必将随着时代的变迁而发生显著的变化。根据这些真实的趋势，结合老龄化社会和未来城市的社会变化，对未来城市的地震易损性进行了估算，强调了除了人为破坏和物质破坏外，各种地震灾害，地震易损性评价应根据现代社会地震灾害的实际情况，考虑城市间地震灾害的相互影响，地震危险性评价应考虑区域和范围。