Seismic Risk Assessment for Tokyo Bay Region by Estimation of Regional Vitality Decline in Earthquake Disaster

作为地震风险管理的一部分，提出了日本经济潜力较大的三个大都市区，即东京湾地区、名古屋经济圈和大阪经济圈的地震易损性评估方法。该方法提出了几种地震灾害的地震易损性时间序列评估方法，该方法考虑了地震灾害易损性引力和地震灾害易损性潜势这两个区域间的连锁反应。本研究的主要成果如下：(1)提出了社会活力的概念用于地震易损性评估。(2)讨论了该方法用于地震易损性评估的适宜性，并讨论了评估结果与1995年阪神-Awaji地震灾害造成的实际损失之间的高度相关性。(3)定量地表明，每个城市、每个地区、每个圈层都可能具有各自城市、区域或圈层特有的地震易损性。(4)城市、区域和圈层必然随着时间的变迁而发生显著的变形。针对这些现实趋势，结合老龄化社会和未来城市的其他社会变化，对未来城市的地震易损性评估进行了尝试。最后，本研究强调，在进行地震易损性评估时，除了考虑人员伤亡和物质损失外，还应根据现代社会地震灾害的实际情况，考虑城市、区域和圈层之间地震灾害的相互影响。

In this study, an method of seismic vulnerability assessment for the three metropolitan regions with economically high potential in Japan, that is, Tokyo Bay region, Nagoya economic sphere and Osaka economic sphere, as one part of earthquake risk management. This method proposes the seismic vulnerability assessment in time series for several kinds of earthquake disaster, including the two ripple effects among concerned regions, namely earthquake disaster vulnerability gravitation and earthquake disaster vulnerability potential. The prime products in this study are as follows :(1) The concept of social vitality is proposed for a seismic vulnerability assessment by use of the social activity fall attendant upon earthquake disaster.(2) The propriety of this method for seismic vulnerability assessment is discussed, and the high correlation between the assessment results and actual damage in Kinki District due to the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster.(3) It is quantitatively shown that every city, every region and every sphere may be characterized by the seismic vulnerabilities peculiar to respective city, region or sphere.(4) City, region and sphere are sure to undergo a remarkable transfiguration with the time transitions. In the light of these real trends, the estimation of seismic vulnerability assessment of future city is tried in consideration of aging society and other social changes in future cities.In conclusion, it is emphasized in this study that the various kind of earthquake disaster, in addition to human damage and physical damage, should be considered for seismic vulnerability assessment on the basis of the actual aspects in earthquake disaster of the modern society, and that the mutual effects of earthquake disaster among cities, regions and spheres should be taken into account in seismic risk assessment.